466
FXUS62 KILM 132315
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
615 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALBEIT STILL PLEASANT READINGS INLAND. LONG ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT NOW LOCATED OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST (AS SEEN BY NUMEROUS
SATELLITE IMAGES) WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY SUNDAY MID MORNING.
A QUICK AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINS REASONABLE
WITH HIGH/SHORT LIVED POPS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY WILL
BE REALIZED EARLY THEN FALLING RAPIDLY INTO THE 40S BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: DANGEROUS COLD SUN NIGHT INTO MON AM
*RAIN CHANCES: NONE
*TEMPS: WELL BELOW NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NEAR RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CAUSING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AROUND 5-
10 DEGREES SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NOW GIVEN SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LOW WIND CHILLS WILL GET BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
AT THE VERY LEAST WE WILL REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (6-15
DEGREES) FOR ALL AREAS. ALSO SOMETHING TO NOTE AS A VERY LOW BUT NON-
ZERO PROBABILITY, BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP ON ROADS SUN EVE AS TEMPS
QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING (ESPECIALLY INLAND). FORTUNATELY, THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND RAPID DRYING/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVENT MUCH ICE FROM DEVELOPING.
NOT MUCH WARMING EXPECTED MON AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP MON NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES MORE
OVERHEAD LEADING TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THUS, WE
LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS (~20 INLAND
TO ~30 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST), ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS WIND THE
WIND CHILLS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ABOVE OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (15 DEGREES). DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS*
*HAZARDS: NONE
*RAIN CHANCES: LOW TO MOD THU THRU FRI W/ BEST CHANCES THU NIGHT
*TEMPS: NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
*CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH
DETAILS: THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY
AS IT SLIDES OFFSHORE LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. MOISTURE/FORCING APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE SO ONLY CARRYING LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WITH NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP BY 03Z FOR ALL LOCAL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PERHAPS CRE AND MYR. THIS IS DUE TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING, MVFR CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW HOURS OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW VISIBILITY DIPPING TO
2-3 MILES WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, BUT ONLY VERY BRIEFLY. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 13-16Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY VIA STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND MORESO
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. WHILE SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO THIS ONSET (SUNDAY MORNING) THEY SHOULD BE
BRIEF AS THE MAIN SYSTEM IS NOT WASTING ANY TIME. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ALL OF THIS OCKERS HOWEVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
PERIOD. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY MON DUE TO
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KT A GOOD BET THRU SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE PRETTY QUICKLY MON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVERHEAD AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION SLACKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MAINTAIN CONTROL AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED THRU MID WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 17 / 2010
KLBT: 13 / 2010
KCRE: 17 / 1944
KFLO: 13 / 2010
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...RJB/SHK
CLIMATE...
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