903
FXUS62 KILM 141101
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
601 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
AVIATION AND WWA UPDATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE FRIGID AIR MASS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
MID TO LATE MORNING TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING, MAKING THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST
VERY UNCERTAIN. IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION BEGINS WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO OF FROPA AND BY NOON THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ON THEIR WAY TO MID TEENS TONIGHT. STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR, AND AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT GUSTS GET AN EXTRA BOOST. GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE SUNSET. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD COLD COUPLED WITH WINDS 15-20 MPH WILL LEAD
TO WIND CHILL VALUES UNDER 10 DEGREES. WINDS DO START TO EASE A FEW
HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH HELPS KEEP WIND CHILLS ABOVE THE MAGIC
5 DEGREE MARK NEEDED FOR AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. HAVE DROPPED THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH AND OPTED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS NARROW
BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 200% OF NORMAL. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SOMEWHAT STABLE
SURFACE LAYER AND TAP INTO THE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. LIMITED
MOISTURE ABOVE 10K FT, BARELY ABOVE THE FREEZING LAYER, SO NO
CONCERN OF THUNDER GIVEN THE LOW TOPPED NATURE OF ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT MAY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS, BUT NOTHING DAMAGING. OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO THE NARROW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS, 30+ MPH. MOST AREAS WILL SEE NO MORE THAN 0.10".
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS
INTO MONDAY. THIS VERY DRY AND CHILLY AIR WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES. COULD BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAX
AFTN TEMPS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, DOWN CLOSE
TO 0 BY AFTN. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN ZERO CHANCE OF
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MIGRATES NEARLY OVERHEAD. BY MON EVE, THE
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SW AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
BUT WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES MOST PLACES INLAND OF COAST WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WITH WAA IN SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW. H5 HEIGHTS WILL RISE WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS. THE 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND -8C EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL REBOUND A GOOD 25 TO
30 DEGREES UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 50 TUES AFTN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 60 UNDER DECEMBER SUNSHINE ON WED. A WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRI. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S ON THURS AND 70S ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW, BEST CHANCE OF
PCP WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT BUT MAY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR BORDERING ON IFR POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 16Z
TODAY, PERHAPS AS LATE AS 17Z ALONG THE NC COAST, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS UNDER 2K FT AND DROP VISIBILITIES TO 3-5
SM. THREAT OF MVFR/IFR RAPIDLY DECREASES BY MIDDAY WITH VFR
QUICK TO RETURN. BIGGER STORY WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY AT INLAND TERMINALS WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE WEAKER.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO WEST THEN
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND
30 KT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EVENING DECREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OUT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
WINDS 30- 35KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE SHORTER THAN THE CURRENT WARNING, BUT
WHENEVER THE GALE DOES COME DOWN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THE ADVISORY IS
LIKELY TO RUN PAST DAYBREAK MON. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY BUILD TO 4-7
FT TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL
BE A MIX OF DOMINANT WIND WAVES AND BACKGROUND SWELL FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WIND WAVE WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
THEN A NORTHERLY WIND WAVE DEVELOPS AND QUICKLY BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WAVE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE COMING TO AN END MID TO LATE MON MORNING AS GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REACHING CLOSER
OVERHEAD BY LATE MON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING THE AREA WATERS IN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS BY
MON EVE AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 17 / 2010
KLBT: 13 / 2010
KCRE: 17 / 1944
KFLO: 13 / 2010
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 34 / 1958
KLBT: 37 / 1949
KCRE: 40 / 2010
KFLO: 35 / 1958
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/RGZ
CLIMATE...
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