407
FXUS62 KILM 142318
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
618 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ONCE CLOUDS BREAK OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS UP FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW 10
DEGREES EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ABATE ENOUGH THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL BE ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 9 AM
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WITH HIGHS
MONDAY FROM 35 TO 40.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM (MID WEEK) PERIOD. THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD BREAKING DOWN AND DRIFTING OFFSHORE AS A WARMING
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. LOWS TUESDAY AM ARE IN THE LOWER 20S BUT
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED AT SOME LOWER VALUES IN THE TRADITIONALLY
COOLER AREAS. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 50 PERHAPS JUST A BIT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE REASONABLE LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SOMEWHAT FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING POPS TO THE
AREA ON AND AROUND THURSDAY IN THE FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
GOOD CHANCE VALUES RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW LIKELY
STAMPS SHOWING UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THAT'S ABOUT IT FOR POPS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER VALUES EARLY ON TRENDING
DOWNWARD IN TIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03-06Z DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EARLIER TODAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PROBABILITY
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AS THE NEXT FRONT
REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...
N TO NW WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KT ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT
NORTH AND 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL PEAK AT
5 TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 6 FT DURING
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE FROM THE VALUES
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE LED TO. BY MONDAY EVENING
WEST WINDS DROPPING TO SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE IN PLACE. IN TIME THE
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR TEN KNOTS. VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET INCREASING VERY LATE COINCIDING
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 17 / 2010
KLBT: 13 / 2010
KCRE: 17 / 1944
KFLO: 13 / 2010
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 34 / 1958
KLBT: 37 / 1949
KCRE: 40 / 2010
KFLO: 35 / 1958
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/31
CLIMATE...
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