987
FXUS62 KILM 151147
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH 1 PM EST. THIS IS LIKELY A LITTLE LONGER THAN WILL BE
REQUIRED, BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MIXING PERSISTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE
MARGINAL GUSTS WILL BE AMPLIFIED NEAR THE 20 NM EXTENT OF OUR
COVERAGE AREA WHERE WATERS A LITTLE WARMER. HERE, A LONGER
PERIOD OF 25 KNOTS GUSTS WILL LIMIT THE IMPROVEMENT OF ELEVATED
4-6 FOOT SEAS AS WELL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.
THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOR THE ON-TIME EXPIRATION OF THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 30S WITH FULL SUNSHINE.
WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5-10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT TONIGHT, WHICH SHOULD SAVE US FROM
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE TEENS. DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS AND BETTER
COOLING CONDITIONS, LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 AND LOWS
TUES NIGHT NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, EXCEPT WARMER RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT
MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WED AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL, A DRY MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH
TEMPS REACHING UP NEAR 60 BY WED IN CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BROAD RIDGE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SW FLOW AND A BIT MORE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN ON THURS. A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG DOWN PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST.
INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS LATE THURS INTO EARLY FRI. MAY EVEN SEE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS ON FRIDAY WITH COLUMN DRYING OUT AND CAA BRINGING
TEMPS DOWN FROM THE MID 60S ON THURS TO THE MID 50S BY SAT.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SAT
REACHING OFFSHORE BY SUN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS
THIS MORNING. SEAS AROUND 5-7 FEET THIS MORNING, BECOMING 3-5
FEET BY MID MORNING AND 2-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
LEAVING THE AREA WATERS IN A LIGHT W-SW RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BE DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS TUES AND WED BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURS.
UNTIL COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON FRI. COULD SEE SEAS REACH SCA
THRESHOLDS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NW ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS FOR DEC 15:
KILM: 34 / 1958
KLBT: 37 / 1949
KCRE: 40 / 2010
KFLO: 35 / 1958
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21
CLIMATE...ILM
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