485
FXUS62 KILM 152247
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
547 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING INTO THE REGION SETTING STAGE FOR IDEALIZED
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH DID LEAN A BIT ON THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE THOUGH OVERALL GUIDANCE SPREAD ISN'T OVERLY LARGE.
WAA WILL KICK IN TONIGHT BUT OBVIOUSLY REMAIN STUCK WELL ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND WITH MIXING POSSIBLY CAPPED AS SHALLOW
AS 1700FT TUESDAY THIS WILL STILL BE THE CASE AND HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT 50, SOME CATEGORY AND A HALF BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND COMPARED TO CLIMO THIS PERIOD AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE SE U.S. COASTAL AREA. AFTER LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LWR
30S TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY 40-45 DEG. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH
OR SLIGHTLY ECLIPSE 60 DEG MOST AREAS. NO PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DAYTIME THURSDAY WILL FEATURE CHANCE POPS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL SIMILARLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN (LIKELY
POPS) IS THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FROPA AND
BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. MUCH DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A
RETURN TO TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WARM UP ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AS
WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE SW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE AS ARCTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE N AND W. SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED
OF A LIGHT SE SWELL AND A DIMINISHING WIND WAVE, THE LATTER'S
PERIOD POSSIBLY SHORTENING TO 2 SECONDS BY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. NEXT (HIGH)
CHANCE FOR A SCA COMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COLD FROPA. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT IN THE SSW FLOW
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FOR THE
WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLIMATE
RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MON DEC 15:
KILM: 34 / 1958 (OBSERVED WAS 37)
KLBT: 37 / 1949 (OBSERVED WAS 36, BREAKING THE RECORD)
KCRE: 40 / 2010 (OBSERVED WAS 37, BREAKING THE RECORD)
KFLO: 35 / 1958 (OBSERVED WAS 37)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/MBB
CLIMATE...
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