190
FXUS62 KILM 161814
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SHARPLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL PROGRESS EASTWARDS TONIGHT
AND FIND A NEW CENTER OFF THE COAST. THE RESULTING SW FLOW WILL
BRING A SEASONABLE NIGHT AND A MILD AFTERNOON IN A MONTH THAT
HAS SO FAR AVERAGED 7-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT OUR 4 CLIMATE
SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY AGGRESSIVE MOISTENING AT
THE CIRRUS LEVEL BEGINNING AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY GROWING TO
AROUND 8KFT THICK BY MIDDAY DIMMING THE SUNSHINE AND CAPPING THE
OTHERWISE WARM HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED DRY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NE. INCREASING MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...LOWS ONLY IN THE 40S. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE OVERNIGHT BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
DAYTIME THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THIS PERIOD. DAYTIME
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY,
INCREASING TO 60-80% IN THE AFTN DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL WAA AND INCREASING DEEP- LAYER MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN (80-90% POPS) IS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FROPA AND BEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A RETURN TO
TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER WARM UP ENSUES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
5-10 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AS WINDS BECOME OUT
OF THE SW. FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BROADLY OVERHEAD
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY BE A TAD
VARIABLE UNTIL THIS HAPPENS, AFTER WHICH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COME TO DOMINATE. THE LIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
CAPPED AT 10KT. WITH SO LITTLE WIND ENERGY IN THE SEAS THE
DOMINANT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ROUGHLY 9 SECOND SWELL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. A SCA CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FROPA.
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 7-8 FT IN THE SSW FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO ~25 KT ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER FOR THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MAS/MBB
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