586
FXUS62 KILM 040719
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND OFFSHORE MIDWEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SLATED FOR WED THRU
FRI. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
5H TROF AXIS OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BY SUNRISE,
FURTHER PUSHING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
U.S. MAINLAND. TODAY THRU TONIGHT WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH SUBSIDENCE RULING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING MID-
LEVEL S/W TROF. ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT,
SHOULD SCOUR OUT DURING THE DAYTIME MORNING HRS LEAVING SUNNY
SKIES THE STRATOCU/ALTOCU SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK JUST UPSTREAM FROM
THE FA, WILL ALSO SCOUR OUT AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DUE
THEIR JOBS. TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THRU
TONIGHT, WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 30 S FOR
TONIGHTS LOWS. SFC HIGH WILL DROP SE THIS PERIOD, WITH ITS
RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
ALSO, HINTS OF AN INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE
AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS BY MON MORNING.
SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AT THE
SURFACE. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL/WESTERLY ATOP A VERY LOW
AMPLITUDE GULF RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL JETTING WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. THE END RESULT: LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SETUP MENTIONED ABOVE HOLDS NEARLY STEADY EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM. THE OFFSHORE HIGH DOES DRIFT A BIT FURTHER OUT TO
SEA AND AN ISOBAR OR TWO AROUND A GREAT LAKES LOW FIND
THEMSELVES IN THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENTLE WARM
ADVECTION THAT WILL ONLY ADD A FEW EXTRA DEGREES EACH SUCCESSIVE
DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION IS
MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF ATLANTIC HIGH
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN (UP THE COAST). THIS BEGS THE
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE NEXT NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM CAN DIVE
A FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH (AS PER THE GFS, EXEMPLI GRATIA) FOR
VERY ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. THE EC IS MUCH MORE TEMPERED, WITH A
SLOW FROPA THAT LACKS UPPER SUPPORT AND THE MODEL IS SHOWING
MINIMAL QPF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CAPPED AT ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS AND THE 5H TROF AXIS MOVES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST, LOOK FOR SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL WITH DRYING
/SCOURING OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THE COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE 1K FT OR LESS CEILINGS HOLD
ON LONGER THAN THEIR INLAND TERMINALS COMRADES GIVEN THE LATEST
SAT IMAGERY NIGHT TIME STRATUS AND FOG IMAGERY TRENDS. SFC PG
ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO
POSSIBLY GO CALM FOR SEVERAL HRS LEADING TO DAYBREAK, BUT THERE-
AFTER SHOULD SEE ACTIVE NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS MAY LEAD TO BOUTS
OF SFC FOG GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND WITH THE UPSTREAM SCU AND
ACU SCOURING OUT THEMSELVES AS THE APPROACH SE NC AND NE SC.
WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE INCLUSION OF THE FOG AT PRESS TIME. AFTER
SUNRISE, MAJORITY IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL BECOME VFR AND THIS
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6AM. THE PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE NC WATERS, WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX-SOME AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE
FROM THE NC COAST TODAY. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
6AM TODAY, WITH FURTHER RELAXING OF THE SFC PG WITH RESULTING
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING RESPECTIVELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. SFC HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST BY TONIGHT WITH
MODELS HINTING AT AN INVERTED SFC TROF, AKA COASTAL TROF,
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL FROM THE CAROLINA COASTS BY MON
MORNING. IF THIS RESULTS, THE SFC PG WILL RE-TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE NE-ENE WINDS BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A SUBSIDING
TREND GIVEN WINDS MAINLY A FUNCTION OF THE SHORT PERIOD LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...E TO SE WINDS MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SEAS JUST 2 FT OR LESS DUE TO THESE
WINDS BEING CAPPED AT 10KT AND SWELL ENERGY NEGLIGIBLE. THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER THE MIDWEEK PERIOD VEERING THE FLOW
TO W AND THEN SW FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SPEED AS THE
INITIAL FLOW REGIME ASSOC WITH A GREAT LAKES LOW SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BOTH STEERING MECHANISMS APPEAR TO TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THURSDAY FOR A RETURN OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
ABATING SEAS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252.
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/MBB
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