885
FXUS62 KILM 042338
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
638 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AREN'T TREMENDOUSLY
THICK, BUT WILL OBSCURE THE SKY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
ABOUT 2-3 AM BEFORE CLEARING DEVELOPS AGAIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A VERY PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INDICATIVE OF A HUMID
BOUNDARY LAYER. OUR FORECAST LOWS ARE WELL BELOW CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION SUGGESTING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT. FOG REMAINS
OUR BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE: CURRENT GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE START OF FOG MUCH CLOSER TO SUNRISE THAN EARLIER
RUNS HAD INDICATED. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIET NEAR TERM PERIOD. A WAVE OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE HIGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THE PASSING CLOUDS AS WELL AS
SOME WAA FROM THE SW. I'VE TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHEN THE CLOUDS SHOULDN'T BE PREDOMINANT
(FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET AND THEN A COUPLE BEFORE
SUNRISE). RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN OUR FAR SW
AREAS DUE TO THE WAA, BUT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 30S. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. CONTINUED WARMING WILL BRING HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH THE MAIN STORY
BEING INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND
SW SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE WARMER DAYS THAN WE'VE SEEN AS OF
LATE...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS UPR-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
EVENTUALLY A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT GIVEN THE RIDGING IN PLACE, THE FROPA
TIMING AND WELL AS POPS MAY END UP BEING SLOWER/WEAKER IN THIS
SCENARIO. MAINTAINED NO HIGHER THAN 20% POPS FOR FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO 30-40% FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT, IMPACTING THE FLORENCE (KFLO) AIRPORT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER WITH THE
ONSET OF WEATHER ISSUES AT KFLO, NOW HIGHLIGHTING THE PERIOD
12-15Z MONDAY FOR IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. OUR
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION SHOWING IFR DEVELOPING
AFTER 10Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE WITH
ONLY A LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG AT KLBT AND
KCRE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NE WINDS ~10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE EASTERLY BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE MONDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD, WINDS TURNING BACK TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SEAS 1-3 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE DURATION OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
FARTHER OFFSHORE, LEAVING A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SEA STATE WILL MAINLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WIND WAVES, BUT A WEAK EASTERLY 14-15 SECOND
SWELL COULD MOVE IN MIDWEEK.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/LEW
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