779
FXUS62 KILM 050606
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
106 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS. A MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ONLY FLATTEN THE
WARMUP THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND, ONLY BRINGING MINOR RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FLAT FLOW ALOFT AS WEAK 5H RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TRIES TO BUMP ITS WAY
NORTH. THE FAST MOVING FLOW HELPS SHIFT ELONGATED HIGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST THIS MORNING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING
RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARMING WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, BUT WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MORE THAN A CLOUD OR TWO WITH THE BOUNDARY GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT,
HELPING INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO
SEE FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, BUT NO SIGNALS FOR DENSE FOG.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELP KEEP
LOWS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PAIRED WITH BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND A
LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A S TO SW SURFACE FLOW LOCALLY.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PERFECTLY ZONAL AND THUS OUT OF THE WEST. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE IN THE OH VALLEY PUTTING THE
CAROLINAS IN THE RIGHT EXIT OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC QUADRANT OF DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS JET WILL STILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH PAIRED WITH A FEW FLAT CU BENEATH A 4KFT INVERSION
FOR A SKY COVER FORECAST OF 30 PERCENT. OTHERWISE QUIET WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS A BIT
MUDDLED THOUGH SINCE IT WON'T BRING ANY RAIN IT'S ONLY (POTENTIAL)
IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE WIND DIRECTION AND SOME
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAKLY CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE NE HAS ENOUGH
ENERGY TO DRIVE IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AGAIN, NO FORCING AND NO
RAIN AND BARELY BAROCLINICITY SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS. FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE MIDATLANTIC HIGH GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT QPF BUT MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR UNSUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THE WEEKEND PATTERN
CHANGE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACH OF A
HEALTHY TROUGH AND FRONT FROM THE WEST NOW APPEARS SLOWER. LOW END
POPS WILL REMAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARDS UNTIL THE UNCERTAINTY
GETS IRONED OUT. NONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SITUATIONS WILL DEVIATE
THE FORECAST FROM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE LATE
WEEKEND FRONT ARRIVES.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONCERN FOR THE VALID TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG ACROSS INLAND SC BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GOING BACK AND FORTH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL, BUT SITES TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ARE STARTING TO REPORT IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY ADVECT IN AND, ONCE THIN CIRRUS
MOVES OUT, THE MOISTURE WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TO PRODUCE FOG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN THE
GUIDANCE TRENDS, BUT THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, AND LIGHT TO CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HARD TO IGNORE.
FOG WILL ONLY AFFECT FLO, WITH POST SUNRISE MIXING AT MYR/CRE
SETTING UP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/FOG/STRATUS CAN ARRIVE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR FOG REPORTED AT CRE FROM MIST OFF THE ICW.
VFR WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SETUP IS OFTEN ONE THAT LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. DO NOT HAVE ANY FOG IN TAFS BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TUESDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFFSHORE. WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER
10 KT INTO TUE WITH WEAK LANDBREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL BE A MIX OF SWELLS, EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY'S WINDS MAY START LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD COME TO DOMINATE AS
THE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STORM
SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH THE WIND
DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PUSH WEAKLY THROUGH. BEST FORECAST AT TIME IS
THAT IT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO N FOLLOWED BY
VEERING THE ONSHORE AS THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LIGHT
INTENSITY. NO MAJOR SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY MINOR SWELL WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM
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