009
FXUS62 KILM 051708
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1208 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL MOVE NORTH AGAIN THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY, ONLY BRINGING MINOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND 850 MB MOISTURE RETURN
WILL LEAD TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL ALSO HOLD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO, WITH 40-45
EXPECTED INLAND AND 45-50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT, MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH, HOWEVER EXPECT THE
BULK OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, AND WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH NO MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH,
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH MID- LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS ADDED
SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY, NEAR
70, AS THE COLD AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FIGHT BUILDING HIGH CLOUDS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 50
WHILE THE COLDER AIR WILL DROP US INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAG THE STALLED
FRONT NORTH WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. SOME
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN UNDER THIS PROLONGED S/SW
FLOW, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AND UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE WEDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GIVE WAY TO SW FLOW ON TUESDAY BETWEEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND SURFACE RIDGING OFF
THE COAST. MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM
WINDS, WILL LEAD TO MVFR STRATUS/MIST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...PREDOMINANTLY VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY, AND LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
VFR WILL DOMINATE TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST WITH DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SETUP IS OFTEN ONE THAT LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AT MOST IF NOT ALL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST IS MAINTAINING
LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO SHORE, THEN PREDOMINANTLY SW ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES NE. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, REACHING 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH MAY SPREAD INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY'S WINDS MAY START LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD COME TO DOMINATE AS
THE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A STORM
SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH THE WIND
DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PUSH WEAKLY THROUGH. BEST FORECAST AT TIME IS
THAT IT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO N FOLLOWED BY
VEERING THE ONSHORE AS THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR NORTH MOVES EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LIGHT
INTENSITY. NO MAJOR SWELL ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING THE
SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO DOMINATE. THE ONLY MINOR SWELL WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...LEW/CRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page