034
FXUS62 KILM 052334
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL MOVE NORTH AGAIN THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY, ONLY BRINGING MINOR RAIN CHANCES, BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, AND 850 MB MOISTURE RETURN
WILL LEAD TO SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRATUS OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL ALSO HOLD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO, WITH 40-45
EXPECTED INLAND AND 45-50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT, MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH, HOWEVER EXPECT THE
BULK OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SET UP TUESDAY BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, AND WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS
WELL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH NO MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH,
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH MID- LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS ADDED
SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SATURDAY, NEAR
70, AS THE COLD AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FIGHT BUILDING HIGH CLOUDS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 50
WHILE THE COLDER AIR WILL DROP US INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAG THE STALLED
FRONT NORTH WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. SOME
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BUILD IN UNDER THIS PROLONGED S/SW
FLOW, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AND UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
IN FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06-07Z BEFORE
DETERIORATING AFTERWARD.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT IMPACTS WILL BE AT THE TWO
MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS, KCRE AND KMYR, BETWEEN 08-12Z TUESDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT KFLO AND KLBT LASTING
PERHAPS AS LATE AS 15Z TUESDAY. AND THERE IS A SOMEWHAT LOWER
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS OR GROUND DOG AT KILM. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8-12 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST IS MAINTAINING
LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO SHORE, THEN PREDOMINANTLY SW ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES NE. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, REACHING 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED
TROUGH MAY SPREAD INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUESDAY'S WINDS MAY START LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD COME TO DOMINATE
AS THE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BRING MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH
THE WIND DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POSITION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PUSH WEAKLY THROUGH. BEST FORECAST
AT TIME IS THAT IT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
N FOLLOWED BY VEERING THE ONSHORE AS THE PARENT HIGH TO OUR
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LIGHT INTENSITY. NO MAJOR SWELL
ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES TO
DOMINATE. THE ONLY MINOR SWELL WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE, ESPECIALLY BEFORE FRIDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...LEW/CRM
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