659
FXUS62 KILM 060536
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1236 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BLOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN OF SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOCAL AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE, NOW WELL OFFSHORE,
AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS FLAT/PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE TOP OF BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP ANY COLD AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE PROMOTING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD. THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH PARTS OF INLAND SC FLIRTING WITH 70. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS STRONGER WARM ADVECTION PUSHES NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO REFUTE THIS WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY, STABLE
AIR ABOVE 2K FT OR SO. A BIT OF MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD, BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP SKIES FROM BEING PARTLY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY (AT LEAST AS FAR AS
LOW CLOUD GOES). VARYING THICKNESS OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY
MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CIRRUS
AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT KEEPING
LOWS 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT, AIR ALOFT IS VERY DRY, SO NO THREAT OF
SHOWERS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
FRONT. CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG, ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MUCH FOG.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE NEAREST FEATURE IS A
LOW EXITING THE NE. THE SYSTEM OCCLUDED, IT'S SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BE NEAR THAT OF THE MID LEVELS. THIS PUTS THE CAROLINAS IN THE
WESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW. THE ONLY MOISTURE SHOWING UP
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL AND IT IS TRANSIENT BY
DAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL BY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT'S ONLY
MAIN EFFECT WILL TO BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER WED NIGHT IN COMPARISON
TO TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
WITH THE SLIGHTLY LARGER DEPARTURES COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE FROPA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
EVEN AS THE UPPER JET THAT HAD BEEN CAUSING IT WED NIGHT EXITS TO
THE EAST AND GIVES WAY TO RIDGING. WHILE THIS SEEMS SUSPECT IT WILL
OTHERWISE HAVE NO EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ASIDE FROM DIMMER
SUNSHINE. THE WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
WITH SOME GENTLE UPGLIDE OVERRUNNING IT THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME HIGH
LEVEL MID CLOUD AT TIMES. THE HIGH OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE OH/MS VALLEY
REGIONS STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW AND BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE COAST. TEMPS RISE APACE SUCH THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME LOWS WARMER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE SHOWING A COMMON BIAS OF
TOO MUCH MOISTURE RETURN IN A RETURN FLOW REGIME THAT COINCIDES WITH
RIDGING ALOFT AND FRIDAY'S MINOR POPS WILL LIKELY BE TRIMMED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS. CIRRUS MOISTURE GIVES WAY TO A DIURNAL CU FIELD AT
4-5KFT SATURDAY AND ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. FROPA IS SLATED FOR EITHER
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. IT'S MOVEMENT SHOULD BE RATHER SWIFT AND
IT'S RIBBON OF MOISTURE NARROW SO WHILE A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT AND
TEMPERATURE CHANGE SHOULD HERALD ITS ARRIVAL NO SIGNIFICANT RELEIF
TO OUR DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT
THE PERIOD, LIKELY NOT ONLY BACK TO SEASONABLY COOL JANUARY READINGS
BUT PERHAPS CONSIDERABLY LOWER.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEXT 6-8 HOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS. MIXED
SIGNALS AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL GOES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HELP SET THE STAGE,
BUT THERE ARE COMPLICATING FACTORS. VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS, SOME
OF IT THICK, WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALSO A BIT STRONGER THAN THE CALM WINDS SEEN
AT THE SURFACE. FINALLY THERE ARE PATCHES OF STRATUS IN THE 2-3K FT
RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SC AND THE SC COAST THAT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST. THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG
THROUGH 12Z, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT POCKETS OF BRIEF IFR, AS RECENTLY
SEEN AT KGGE. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD IFR SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AN ADDED WRINKLE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW STRATUS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AT MANY OF THE SITES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND A BIT OF SURFACE HEATING
COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SUB 2K MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS,
ROUGHLY 12Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
ONCE ANY SUNRISE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BREAK VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
06Z. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT SPEEDS WILL BARELY TOUCH 10 KT. APPROACH OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH 06Z.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM 10 KT OR LESS
CURRENTLY TO A SOLID 15 KT LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PEAKING IN THE 15-
20 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. THE ENHANCED WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER TO MORE
WESTERLY AND HIGHER SEAS END UP PUSHED BEYOND THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES, BUT SEAS WILL FLIRT WITH 5 FT WELL AWAY
FROM SHORE AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE BECOMING DOMINANT, THE
WAVE PERIODS WILL BE NEARLY EQUAL TO THE WAVE HEIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... OFFSHORE WINDS LIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN BEHIND A FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DISCONNECTED FROM THE DYNAMICS DRIVING THE LOW INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
THESE LIGHT WINDS VEER FROM W TO N WED NIGHT AND EVEN THOUGH A NE
SWELL STARTS TO SHOW UP THE ABATING WIND COMPONENT WILL STILL YIELD
DECREASING DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS BOTTOM OUT THURSDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALBEIT RATHER SLOWLY. RETURN FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY AND
WHAT WEAK SWELL ENERGY PERSISTS SHOULD START COMING OUT OF THE
SE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...ILM
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