589
FXUS62 KILM 062333
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
633 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMUP THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT. MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG, MOISTURE-
LIMITED COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
RETURN OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE, ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO VEER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH, THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS, PLUS PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME LOW STRATUS BY DAYBREAK. ALL THESE
FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG
THE COAST, AROUND 50 INLAND.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HENCE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY IN NEUTRAL ADVECTION
AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL MORNING CIRRUS WILL
CLEAR FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WARM AND DRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH STALLED FRONT TO
THE SOUTH, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE WEST. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S THURSDAY MORNING
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. STALLED FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ~20F
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS BOTH
DAYS WILL REACH MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES
HIGHLIGHTING A CHANCE INLAND RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS COULD BE
TIED, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 50S IS TYPICAL OF DAYTIME HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, THOUGH TIMING OF
FRONT CONTINUES TO VARY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL, THOUGH
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT LOSING QUITE A BIT OF ITS MOISTURE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA AND QPF IS LIMITED, ESPECIALLY
WITH 500MB TROUGH NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET ARE
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SETTLE DOWN,
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA MAY BE MET OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT 2000 FEET INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH LLWS CRITERIA WILL BE AT ILM AFTER 05Z.
MODERATE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KLBT AND KILM, MAINLY IN LOW
CEILINGS. SOME MVFR GROUND FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP AT KFLO BUT IS
CONTINGENT ON SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING LIGHT ENOUGH.
REGARDLESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AREA-WIDE NO LATER THAN
15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DURING
THE MORNINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD BENEATH
THE COMPRESSED GRADIENT TO 3-5 FEET OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL FALL
SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA, BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS COULD MAKE
FOR DIFFICULT NAVIGATION FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS TURN WESTERLY
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT NNE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH, INCREASING IN SPEED A BIT SATURDAY TO
15-20 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS AROUND
2 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 2-3 FT
SATURDAY WITH THE BUILDING S WIND WAVE. RETURN FLOW MAY PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS A ALSO A CHANCE OF PATCHY SEA FOG FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...VAO/21
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