186
FXUS62 KILM 072339
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
639 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT,
LIFTING BACK NORTH EARLY FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
COULD BRING RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO JANUARY VALUES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 18Z GFS, VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND OUT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH
NOON THURSDAY OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.
WHILE THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LOW VISIBILITY
MAY BECOME, IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE FROM
WILMINGTON AND SOUTHPORT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND
REGION BEGINNING IN THE 10 PM TO 2 AM TIMEFRAME. THE 18Z GFS
LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWED ENOUGH DRY AIR
SCOURING DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEFORE DAYBREAK TO DISTURB
AND LIFT FOG, HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM SHOWS A VERY STABLE 15-20
DEGREE F INVERSION BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1000 FEET AGL WHICH
WOULD BE HIGHLY RESISTANT TO SUCH EFFECTS. IN THE NAM SCENARIO,
INLAND FOG COULD LAST THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG BOTH ON LAND AND OVER THE OCEAN WHERE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A DRY
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. DESPITE A DRIER (AND DRYING) BOUNDARY
LAYER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 KNOTS NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WOULD LIKELY FORCE LOW LEVEL FOG
TO LIFT TO STRATUS OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. THIS SHOULD EASE ANY
IMPACT TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, SAFE TO CALL THIS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
EXPECT ANOTHER STELLAR DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE LATE MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOUCH THE 70
DEGREE MARK WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KICK OFF STRONG WAA AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, DESPITE PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY, AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE, IS FORECASTED AROUND 75-77F. RECORD HIGHS FOR LBT AND
FLO IS 78F FOR JAN 9TH. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHALLOW, VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN RETURN FLOW FRIDAY, WITH VERY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR LIMITING POPS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LOW
50S, WHILE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 60F.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S,
APPROACHING 80F. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 10TH AT FLO AND LBT ARE
80F AND 78F, RESPECTIVELY. BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 MPH. MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL PRESENT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, FINALLY ERODING LATE IN THE DAY AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH LIMITED QPF, WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
FRONT, HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM 12C
SATURDAY NIGHT TO -6C SUNDAY NIGHT, AIDING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
TO START NEXT WEEK. UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE LEFT FOR
ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. AFTER FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY MORNING,
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F IN THE AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE MONDAY
NIGHT THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CURRENT FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPS WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL TROUGH/LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG ALONG THE COAST AFFECTING KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR. THE BULK OF
RECENT WEATHER MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG
FORMATION AS EARLY AS 03-05Z AT KCRE, AND SEVERAL HOURS LATER
BETWEEN 07-08Z AT KILM. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF
IFR. KMYR MAY ALSO SEE IMPACTS FROM FOG MAINLY IN THE 07-11Z
TIMEFRAME. INLAND AT KFLO AND KLBT THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF
VISIBILITY ISSUES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO LINGER
SEVERAL HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
LIFTING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...SEA FOG COULD SPREAD ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH VISIBILITY ISSUES AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KILM, KCRE, AND KMYR.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FOG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, HOWEVER DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTIONS EVEN DAYTIME FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KCRE AND KMYR. CONFIDENCE IN SEA FOG
IMPACTS IS LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND TURN
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, THEY WILL VARY
IN DIRECTION FROM NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS KEEP SEAS AROUND
1-2 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT ENE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY EARLY FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, INCREASING
TO 15-20 KTS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 2 FT FRIDAY INCREASE TO 3-4 FT BY
SATURDAY EVENING WITH BUILDING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE. SEAS LINGER
AROUND 3-4 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH DIMINISHING SOUTHERLY WAVE
COMPONENT BEING REPLACED BY OFFSHORE WAVES. THERE IS A ALSO A
CHANCE OF PATCHY SEA FOG FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE 60S.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...VAO/21
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