133
FXUS62 KILM 081447
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND COULD BRING RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG
BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW-NORMAL VALUES FOR MONDAY
BEFORE MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL THEREAFTER.
UPDATE
EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG MAY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN HORRY,
WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. THE FRONT HAS DROPPED
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SC OUT OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LOOKS LIKE
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL END SOON ALSO AS AREA OF FOG
OFF THE BRUNSWICK COAST WAS SHRINKING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, LEADING TO A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY AS
NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. DO WONDER IF GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
TOO WARM, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ABOVE NORMAL. MAY SEE
MOST AREAS END UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S VS LOW TO MID 70S
SEEN WED. THE FRONT MAY END UP LINGERING SOUTH OF THE AREA A BIT
LONGER THAN FIRST THOUGHT. IF TEMPERATURES DO END UP A LITTLE
COOLER THAN EXPECTED, THE FRONT WOULD TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
OVERCOME THE STUBBORN COOLER AIR. RATHER THAN IT RETURNING NORTH
LATE TONIGHT IT MAY END UP DOING SO JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COLUMN IS TOO DRY AND THE AIR MASS IS TOO
STABLE FOR ANY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE
COASTAL TROUGH AND WAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. SKIES END UP
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT WITH A LOT OF HIGH CLOUD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE HIGH CLOUD COULD BE QUITE THICK AT TIMES,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF THE
AREA. THICK HIGH CLOUD COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHS A BIT
COOLER THAN FORECAST. VARYING AMOUNT OF CLOUD TONIGHT AND WIND
WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. FOG ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AN
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS MID-UPPER TROUGHING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION AND
TRANSLATES EASTWARD, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL, HELPING TO PUSH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. A STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY, WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
STALLED FRONT THROUGH A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE DURING THE MORNING WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT NORTHWARD-MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE OCEAN TO REACH
COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK THROUGH
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHERLY AND
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TO A PARTLY SUNNY COVERAGE. ONCE CLOUDS
BREAK, WARM 925MB TEMPS OF 14-15C WILL PERMIT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS, WITH MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED, AND UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WHERE
ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH DO MAKE IT
ONSHORE SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND INCONSEQUENTIAL.
OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, NORTHWARD-MOVING COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BANDS OF CONFLUENCE FORM OVER THE
OCEAN BETWEEN THIS LOW AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST VERY WARM TO RECORD HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F INLAND AND LOW-MID 70S NEARER TO AND
ALONG THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS, SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WANING AS IT APPROACHES AND
DESPITE SEEING A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT ON
SATURDAY, THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT WITH TIME THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A MUCH SPARSER BAND OF SHOWERS SLOWLY
PUSHING THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST AS THE FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY,
TAKING THE BAND OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITH IT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. STRONG COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT IN THE FORM OF GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL
BRING PWATS FROM AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES IN THE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO AS LOW AS 0.1-0.2" BY SUNDAY EVENING. WINTER WILL
MAKE QUITE THE RETURN AS DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ON
SUNDAY CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. THIS CHILLY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR
AN ABNORMALLY COLD MONDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY, POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS FROM REACHING 50F DESPITE SUNNY
SKIES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS AIRMASS
MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST AMIDST LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS.
BEYOND THIS POINT, MID-UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT,
BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD YIELD TEMPS THAT ARE AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S, LOWS IN THE MID-30S).
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
DEPICTED BY GUIDANCE TOOLS DIVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY AND DIPPING INTO THE GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS ON THIS PATTERN USING 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR PRECIP TO STAY OFFSHORE, BUT AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO IS FOR A DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST TROUGH, WHICH WOULD BRING
SOME PRECIP ONSHORE. THUS, TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE
SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS HAD MUCH MORE SUCCESS SCOURING OUT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAN EXPECTED. IN FACT VFR HAS DEVELOPED AT
ILM AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE IFR THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR AROUND DAYBREAK CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NC ARE MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AS FAR AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR BY MID-MORNING.
DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS SC WHERE THE FRONT IS STILL MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTH. MIX OF IFR/LIFR/VLIFR ACROSS SC, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT BRINGS A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. IFR WILL
LIKELY LINGER A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, BUT NOT AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD RETURN
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.
IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY TO REAPPEAR ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED. DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING
SEA FOG INTO PLAY, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
INLAND SITES WILL STILL HAVE SOME FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS, BUT
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS BEING
MORE PATCHY/SHORT LIVED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...COASTAL FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTIONS EVEN DAYTIME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KCRE AND KMYR. CONFIDENCE IN SEA FOG IMPACTS IS LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH OF A GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN. THE HIGH
WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY. WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, BUT THE WEAK GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL BE A MIX OF TWO
WIND WAVES, SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WITH NEITHER BEING PARTICULARLY
DOMINANT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY MORNING, VEERING WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE
MORNING TO SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 KTS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SPEEDS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR
DURING THE NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS PEAKING AROUND 15-20 KTS. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS INITIALLY VEERING
TO WESTERLY AND REMAINING AROUND 15-20 KTS. A SURGE OF COLD AND DRY
AIR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN SCA CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ON MONDAY AND WINDS
SUBSIDE AS A RESULT.
SEAS AROUND 1-2 FT ON FRIDAY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS BY
RISING TO AROUND 2-4 FT BY LATE SATURDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT, SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 3-5 FT BEFORE QUICKLY
SUBSIDING ON MONDAY. WIND WAVES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO
THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
CLIMATE
MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH OR EXCEED THE
DAILY RECORDS. SEE BELOW FOR MAX TEMP RECORDS ON EACH DAY...
SITE JAN 9 JAN 10
WILMINGTON, NC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974)
N. MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 74F (2013) 79F (1957)
FLORENCE, SC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974)
LUMBERTON, NC: 78F (1907) 78F (1957, 1930)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/ABW
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page