749
FXUS62 KILM 081752
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1252 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
A ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND COULD BRING NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG BUT MOISTURE-LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BELOW-NORMAL
VALUES FOR MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS EVENING. AS IT SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND
FROM E-NE TO E-SE BY MORNING AND THEN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AND WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON FRI WITH PLENTY OF WAA. CIRRUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA IN W-SW FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF
FOG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE FURTHER, EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF SEA FOG.
OVERALL, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND MAY
END UP WITH ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID MORNING LEADING TO A VERY WARM DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
TEMPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
OUR AREA WILL BE FIRMLY IN A WAA REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S WILL BE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS. THERE MAY BE STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST, DUE TO RETURN FLOW, AND ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, DUE TO
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT, OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR AREA WILL KEEP MOISTURE
SHALLOW AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION LIMITED. THERE MAY BE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AFTER MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND DRY
AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT THINS OUT THE CIRRUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH UPPER 70S/NEAR
80F. NBM HAS 30-40% CHANCE OF REACHING 80F INLAND SATURDAY,
WHICH WOULD TIE OR BREAK RECORDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL
ALSO BE MORE REMINISCENT OF SPRING AND SUMMER. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTS AROUND 25-35MPH SATURDAY.
BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DECREASING AFTER CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS. QPF IS AROUND 0.25" WEST OF I-95 AND LESS THAN
0.1" NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS AND COOLING TEMPS
BEHIND IT. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT, AND WILL LIKELY SEE A GRADIENT OF WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST WITH COOLER INLAND. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING, DELAYED BEHIND SURFACE FEATURES, PWATS WILL HAVE
DROPPED DOWN TO 0.2" OR LESS AND SO THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY.
CLEAR SKIES ON MONDAY BUT COOL AIR WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
MONDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN THE 20S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH/LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH BULK OF
THE MOISTURE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR FOR NOW BUT EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR TO LIFR FOG.
INITIALLY SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CIRRUS AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z. COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR TO
LIFR VSBY AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. EXPECT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY MID- MORNING, 14-16Z. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT INTO FRI, LIGHT WINDS WILL
VEER TO BECOME ONSHORE AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD
BRING SEA FOG ONSHORE AFFECTING COASTAL TERMINALS ON FRI WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...COASTAL FOG POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. IMPACTS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTIONS EVEN DAYTIME FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT COASTAL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN SEA FOG IMPACTS IS LOW.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF OF THE DELMARVA
COAST NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND
FROM E-NE TO E-SE BY MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY INTO FRI AFTN.
THE WARM MOIST FLOW OVER THE COOLER WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS
OF FOG. MAY SEE SOME SPOTS BECOME DENSE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
TO THE EXACT EXTENT OF ANY SEA FOG. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
10 KTS AS THE OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SEAS
WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. 5-10 KTS SSW WINDS AND 1-2 FT SEAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND 4 FT SEAS BY EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAY SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY SEA FOG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
WAA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY-MIDDAY SUNDAY. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
20-25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CREATING MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS. 5-FT SEAS BRIEFLY ENTER OUR COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, WITH MARINE CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVING DURING
THE DAY.
CLIMATE
MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH OR EXCEED THE
DAILY RECORDS. SEE BELOW FOR MAX TEMP RECORDS ON EACH DAY...
SITE JAN 9 JAN 10
WILMINGTON, NC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974)
N. MYRTLE BEACH, SC: 74F (2013) 79F (1957)
FLORENCE, SC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974)
LUMBERTON, NC: 78F (1907) 78F (1957, 1930)
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/VAO
CLIMATE...
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