056
FXUS62 KILM 221154
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAFS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BLADEN AND ROBESON
COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA AND DARLINGTON, DILLON, AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CLOSER TO THE COAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE AND DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS LEADING TO
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2) POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
RESULTING IN DANGEROUS COLD HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS LEADING
TO PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI, THE
REAL EVENT BEGINS ON SAT, BUT FOR MANY AREAS IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY. THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR BEGINS PUSHING
SOUTH FRI NIGHT, BUT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REALLY ARRIVES
AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. FROM MIDNIGHT TO DAYBREAK SAT THE 1000-950MB
THICKNESS DROPS ABOUT 20M, WHILE THE RATIO OF CHANGE COMPARED TO
TEMPS ISN'T EXACTLY 1-1, IT'S CLOSE. A 15 DEGREE TEMP DROP FOR SOME
AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT TO ROUGHLY 8AM SAT IS REASONABLE. THE ARCTIC AIR
ALSO BRINGS MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A HEALTHY
DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 4K FT. THIS WILL TAKE A BIT OF
TIME TO MOISTEN UP, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEING ON THE WEAK SIDE. INTERESTINGLY, THE AREAS WHERE RAIN/SLEET
MAY START FALLING FIRST WILL BE ALONG THE COAST, WHERE NORTHEAST
FLOW HELPS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD EXPERIENCE SLEET DURING SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE COAST HOLDING
ONTO RAIN/SLEET LONGEST. INLAND SLEET SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY OPTION
RIGHT NOW GIVEN A STRONG WARM NOSE BASED AROUND 850 AND A NEARLY 4K
FT THICK FREEZING LAYER. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE MARINE INFLUENCE
DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY KEEP MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX.
LATER SAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN
STRENGTHENS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS IS WHEN THE BULK OF THE AREA
WILL START TO TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE COLD DOME REMAINS IN PLACE SAT NIGHT, THE DEVELOPING LOW
HELPS SPREAD WARM, MOISTURE LADEN AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEPTH OF THE FREEZING LAYER SHRINKING TO
LESS THAN 2K FT SAT NIGHT, EVEN FAR INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST IT
IS POSSIBLE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ERODES THE COLD AIR RESULTING IN ALL
RAIN. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND THE LOCATION OF THE LOW
AND THIS IS WHERE MUCH OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH RESPECT TO THE
LONGEVITY OF THE WEDGE. RECENTLY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES/AI COUNTERPARTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE RUNNING UP
THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, BREAKING DOWN THE WEDGE SUN. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN INLAND WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST OR
WEST. THE EVENT MAY END AS A RAIN/WINTERY MIX COMBO TURNING TO
SNOW LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WELL INLAND HAVE OPTED
FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FARTHEST INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED WINTER EVENT HERE IS HIGHEST, WITH THE
WEDGE LIKELY TO HOLD ON WELL INTO SUN BEFORE BREAKING (IF IT
ACTUALLY DOES). EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WATCH IS LIKELY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES, AS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND
EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL RESULTING IN DANGEROUS COLD HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MON INTO
TUE LEADING TO LOWS MON NIGHT WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST EVOLUTION NOW SUGGESTS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ICE AND
SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND STORM. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FASTER
AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND A SHORTER DURATION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IS DANGEROUS COLD IS LOWER.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH. ANY SPOTTY PCP SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY RESTRICTIONS UNTIL
AFTER THIS PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
WITH PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY
MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT WNW WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE N INTO FRIDAY. SEAS
WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT MOST WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, PINCHING THE GRADIENT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SAT AND STRENGTHENING SAT NIGHT WILL INCREASE
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEADLINES WILL BEGIN FRI NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS AND HOW
QUICKLY IT DEPARTS WILL DETERMINE IF HEADLINES END LATER SUN OR
CONTINUE THROUGH MON. SEAS START BUILDING FRI AND CONTINUE
BUILDING INTO SAT EVENING, PEAKING NEAR 10 FT BEFORE OFFSHORE
FLOW COMMENCES A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WAVE HEIGHTS. THE
DOMINANT WAVE WILL BE A NORTHEAST WIND WAVE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LATE SUN A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL START TO DEVELOP
WITH THE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE TRANSITIONING TO AN EASTERLY SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ
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