681
FXUS62 KILM 222335
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE BECOMING MORE INSISTENT THE ARCTIC FRONT
MAY PUSH BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WOULD IMPLY WARMER AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ADDING
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL
BE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS WEEKEND.
2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR DAYS AFTER THE
WINTER STORM, PROLONGING IMPACTS TO THOSE WITHOUT WARM SHELTER NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD AND VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR WILL ONLY BE 3000-4000 FEET DEEP,
TOPPED OFF BY A CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITHIN THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS OR EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PICK UP A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TWO SYSTEMS DO
NOT PHASE, TROUGHING WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
DRAW PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ABOVE THE ARCTIC AIR SATURDAY MAY
RESULT IN AREAS OF SLEET OR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WITH GENERALLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF LIFT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THIS IS THE
PERIOD WHERE WE HAVE THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AS ARCTIC AIR THINS TO ONLY 1500-2500
FEET DEEP WITH CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT. A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA COVERED BY
THE WINTER STORM WATCH. CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONG ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.25 INCH.
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY LOW AS
MAJOR, MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE COLDER 12Z GFS AND NAM
VERSUS THE WARMER 00/06Z/12Z ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND LATEST MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE BLEND. THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY, IF THE WARMER CLUSTER OF
MODELS IS CORRECT, PUSH BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING AIR
TEMPS TO SPIKE INTO THE 60S. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE COLDER 12Z
GFS/NAM LOOK MORE LIKE THE OLD-SCHOOL CONCEPTUAL IDEA OF HOW
CAROLINA ICE STORMS OPERATE WITH SHALLOW BUT VERY DENSE AND
STUBBORN ARCTIC AIR UNWILLING TO YIELD EVEN IN THE FACE OF
IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION OVERHEAD. THE DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER
IMPACTS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED.
UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES, SUNDAY'S CURRENT FORECAST CAN BE
CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY MIDPOINT BETWEEN TWO OPPOSING SOLUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR DAYS
AFTER THE WINTER STORM, PROLONGING IMPACTS TO THOSE WITHOUT WARM
SHELTER NEXT WEEK.
ONCE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY, COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL EITHER REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OR BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS 1036
MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION AND
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OR 40S ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE INTO
THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THIS LONG PERIOD OF IMPRESSIVE COLD MAY EVEN
LINGER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IF SUFFICIENT ICE OCCURS TO
RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES THIS WEEKEND, IMPACTS FROM THIS MAGNITUDE OF
COLD WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO THOSE WITHOUT WARM SHELTER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL
AREAS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTER THE PICTURE AS DO LIGHT SHOWERS
LATE IN THE PERIOD INLAND.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WITH PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. KFLO AND KLBT IN
PARTICULAR STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT RECORDING FZRA,
ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR SO, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...WNW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A BIT OF A
LULL, WINDS START PICKING UP OUT OF THE NNE AT 5-10 KTS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP TOWARDS
10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS AT 2-3 FT PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS BEING ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WINDS SHOULD VEER
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE
ARCTIC FRONT BACK TOWARD THE COASTLINE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE FRONT COULD CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE BACK ONSHORE BRIEFLY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA, SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, WIND DIRECTIONS WOULD BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT GETS A KICK BACK
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA
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