679
FXUS62 KILM 231148
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
DESPITE THE EVENT DRAWING CLOSER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
INCREASING. ACCUMULATIONS, BOTH ICE AND TOTAL RAINFALL, HAVE
DECREASED, BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKEND'S STORM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS, IN EXCESS OF 0.25" WELL
INLAND, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AND
COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.
2) TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS, IN EXCESS OF 0.25"
WELL INLAND, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AND COULD
LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.
UNFORTUNATELY THE OVERALL PICTURE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH CLEARER.
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT THE IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WHAT WE KNOW IS THE ARCTIC AIR COMING IN IS POTENT
AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA MAY ESCAPE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES,
BUT EVEN THAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IS ANOTHER ISSUE. ALONG THE COAST
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS BOUNCING BACK ABOVE FREEZING
QUICKLY, TAKING A BIT LONGER INLAND. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE WORKING TO MOISTEN UP A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
ON SAT IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST TEMPERATURES WARMING AND
PRECIPITATION MANAGING TO REACH THE GROUND. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS
LIKE SAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE DRY THAN WET/ICY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE FURTHER DECREASED.
THE REAL FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN SAT NIGHT. THE LAYER OF VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-3K FT IN PLACE ON SAT IS ALL BUT GONE BY SAT
NIGHT AND THE COLUMN IS FULLY SATURATED. AWAY FROM THE COAST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING, BUT THE DEPTH OF THE
FREEZING LAYER IS LESS THAN 2K FT (AND GRADUALLY DECREASING). THE
PROBLEM SAT NIGHT WILL BE DOWN THE STRENGTH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.
INLAND FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DECENT LIFT, BUT CLOSER TO
THE COAST THE LIFT WEAKENS AND IT COULD BE THE DYNAMICS FROM THE
DEVELOPING/PASSING LOW TAKE OVER. STILL EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, WHICH MAY START AS A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM NOSE STRENGTHENS ANY
SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW LONG TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. INLAND,
SUSPECT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE,
MEANING FREEZING RAIN LINGERS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SUN
NIGHT ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO
RAIN JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE WEDGE BECOMES A BIGGER
FORECAST PROBLEM. THE COLD AIR WITHIN THE WEDGE IS ALWAYS STUBBORN
AND RESISTS THE WARMER AIR. PARTIAL THICKNESS WITHIN THE COLDEST OF
THE GUIDANCE(BASICALLY THE GFS/NAM) DO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WARMING FOR
MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUFFICIENT TO TRANSITION ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION (FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET) TO ALL RAIN SAT EVENING
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. FOR THESE AREAS, ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES THE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THREAT DECREASES. THE CAVEAT HERE IS THE FAR INLAND
PORTIONS OF PENDER COUNTY IN NC AND HORRY COUNTY IN SC. THESE
COUNTIES EXTEND FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT THE COASTAL WARMING IS NOT
LIKELY TO COVER THE ENTIRE COUNTY AND FREEZING RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
SUN MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. OF COURSE A LOT OF THIS HANGS ON THE
LOCATION, TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THE AREAS WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE ARE THOSE IN BETWEEN THE FAR
INLAND WATCH AND THE COASTAL AREAS THAT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN SAT
NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE DENSER COLD AIR WILL TRY AND RESIST THE
WARMER AIR. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME AREAS COULD SEE MULTIPLE TRANSITIONS
BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN SLOWLY SPREADS INLAND AHEAD OF THE SECOND
LOW/COLD FRONT TRAILING THE COASTAL LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND THE INLAND EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION IS LOW. THE GENERALLY POOR
PERFORMANCE OF GUIDANCE IN WEDGE SETUPS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE (OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE/AI) HAS BEEN
FOR LESS TOTAL QPF, LESS ICE ACCUMULATION AND IN GENERAL WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART LOCAL AREA (EVEN THOSE OUTSIDE
THE CURRENT WATCH). TO GIVE AN IDEA OF THE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, AT
WILMINGTON, NC ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE NBM (NBM 10 VS NBM 90) RANGES
FROM 0 TO ALMOST 0.2" WHILE AT HARTSVILLE, SC, WELL INLAND, THE
RANGE IS 0.05" TO ALMOST 0.50". SO AGAIN, WHILE THE TRENDS ARE FOR
LESS ICE OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MUCH OF THE AREA STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS SAT NIGHT AND AT
LEAST PART OF SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ARRIVE MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
A SUCCESSION OF ARCTIC HIGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DEPENDING
ON THE NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY, WITH
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LIKELY IN ANY AREAS WHERE POWER OUTAGES FROM
THE WEEKEND STORM LINGER.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 22Z-04Z TONIGHT.
THEN CEILINGS WILL RAISE A BIT WITH SURGE OF NNE WINDS PICKING
UP TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 06Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
WITH PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. KFLO AND KLBT IN PARTICULAR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT RECORDING FZRA, ESPECIALLY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR SO,
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT NNW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE NNE AND INCREASE UP
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT NNE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF STORM SYSTEM. SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT WILL RAMP
UP CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT REACHING 5 TO 8 FT BY SAT MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 1 AM
TONIGHT (EARLY SAT MORNING).
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COMBINATION OF ARCTIC HIGH AND COASTAL LOW WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE SAT INTO SUN. BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE WINDS SUN AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS, BUT THEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK UP AHEAD OF THE TRAILING LOW/COLD FRONT
COMBO. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT
INTO MON HELPS KEEP HEADLINES GOING THROUGH MON NIGHT.
DECREASING OFFSHORE FLOW LEADS TO QUICK DROP IN SEAS WITH
HEADLINES LIKELY ENDING TUE MORNING. SEAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 10
FT SAT NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FT INTO TUE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096.
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023-024.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...III/RGZ
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