582
FXUS62 KILM 232328
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
628 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARLBORO AND ROBESON
COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT FREEZING RAIN TOTALS WILL
REACH 0.25 INCHES. A WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLADEN, DILLON, AND
DARLINGTON COUNTIES WHERE THERE'S LOWER CONFIDENCE ABOUT ICE TOTALS
REACHING THE THAT THRESHOLD. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY WHERE SMALL
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME WINTRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF EASTERN NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAINS LOW
CONCERNING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS WHILE COLD AIR IS PRESENT.
2) WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME WINTRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT REMAINS LOW CONCERNING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
FALLS WHILE COLD AIR IS PRESENT.
MODELS ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER WITH SOME DETAILS
ABOUT HOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WORK OUT FOR THE WEEKEND STORM.
CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY REMAINS LOWER THAN IS NORMAL FOR AN EVENT NOW
ONLY 24-48 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. SHALLOW AND VERY DRY ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVERRUN WITH A FLOW OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED OFF THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN GULF.
MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS
QUALITY OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WHICH HAS LED TO A
REDUCTION OF PROBABILITY AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUB-CLOUD DEWPOINTS AND WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THAT BREAKS OUT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
SLEET.
BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, INCREASING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
LESS THAN 2500 FEET, THEN TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET LATER SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE INSUFFICIENT DEPTH OF COLD AIR TO REFREEZE
RAINDROPS TO SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. AGAIN, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD LESS
QUALITY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AND THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THAT
CRITICAL 300K-305K REGION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED LARGELY NORTH OF OUR
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS.
AS WARMTH CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALOFT THE FREEZING LINE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND SUNDAY MORNING, CROSSING I-95 SOMETIME
AROUND NOON. FREEZING RAIN COULD CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MARLBORO AND WESTERN ROBESON COUNTIES BUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE ARCTIC FRONT
ITSELF COULD DRAW TO WITHIN 20-40 MILES OF THE COAST AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE.
I ONLY HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TWO OF OUR COUNTIES,
ROBESON AND MARLBORO, TO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED EASTWARD TO THE COAST WHERE SMALL AMOUNTS
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. IN BETWEEN WHERE THERE'S
STILL POTENTIAL (BUT NOT CERTAINTY) THAT 0.25 INCHES OF ICE WILL
ACCUMULATE, THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TAKING AN INLAND TRACK ACROSS GA, SC AND EASTERN NC. AN
ENHANCED SWATH OF WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
SHOULD FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR EAST OF I-95 WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S OR EVEN 60S! EVEN WEST OF I-95,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH ICE MELTING OFF. ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES LEFT OVER FROM SUNDAY SHOULD END. EVEN AFTER THIS
SECOND LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY FOR VERY LOW ODDS OF RE-FREEZING OF MOISTURE ON ROAD SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.
BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON WITH TEENS EXPECTED FOR
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO ESTABLISH A LINK TO THE GULF AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
MOISTURE-STARVED WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND THE VORT MAX.
HOWEVER RENEWED ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT BACK IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
AREA. NBM BLENDS SHOW THIS LATE WEEK AIRMASS MAY BE THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE ENTIRE 2025-2026 WINTER SEASON SO FAR.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY IDEAL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP/LOWER IN TIME THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ON BOARD AS WELL AS GLOBAL SUITES ANY
MENTION OF POPS HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWN FOR NOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
WITH PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. KFLO AND KLBT IN PARTICULAR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE AT RECORDING FZRA AND IP, ESPECIALLY FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR SO, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS MARKEDLY INCREASING TONIGHT AS A
SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR ARRIVES. THIS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE WATERS AS WINDS REACH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 25 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT AND SEAS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY BY RISING PAST 6 FT.
WINDS HOLD AROUND 25- 30 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING
THE 5-8 FT RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS MAINLY
AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY EVENING, WITH SOME
ISOLATED 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD WRAP UP SATURDAY EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT EAST
OF JACKSONVILLE, FL. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IT SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING THE STRONG WINDS.
THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT TO WITHIN ABOUT 20-40 MILES OF
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN SHOULD STALL AGAIN
UNTIL A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING AN INLAND TRACK SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGS A SURGE OF STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
BEACHES AND COASTAL WATERS. ONCE THIS SECOND LOW PUSHES NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD AGAIN PUSH
EASTWARD AND WELL OFF THE COAST WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAKENING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY, THEN OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ087.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NCZ099-105>110.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
SCZ017.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR SCZ023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...TRA
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