484
FXUS62 KILM 241148
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
245AM UPDATE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN
ICE STORM WARNING FOR DILLON AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES OF SC. THE
REMAINING COUNTY IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH, BLADEN COUNTY OF NC,
HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE ACCUMULATING ICE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN, UP TO
0.25 INCHES WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING AND 0.10 TO 0.20 WITHIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC THIS WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY
ICE ACCUMULATING FROM FREEZING RAIN. LOCATIONS FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST APPEAR TO BARE THE BRUNT OF THE FREEZING RAIN,
WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ICE STORM
WARNING AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MILDER AIR FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL HELP KEEP FREEZING RAIN LIMITED AT THE COAST
DURING THIS EVENT AND COULD FARTHER INLAND DURING SUN.
2) EXPECT DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES BOTH MON NIGHT AND THURS
NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK
AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A WINTRY
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NC AND NORTHEAST SC THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY ICE ACCUMULATING FROM FREEZING RAIN.
LOCATIONS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST APPEAR TO BARE THE BRUNT
OF THE FREEZING RAIN, WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ICE STORM WARNING AREAS. CLOSER TO THE COAST, A
TRACE TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF
MILDER AIR FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP KEEP FREEZING RAIN
LIMITED AT THE COAST DURING THIS EVENT AND COULD FARTHER INLAND
DURING SUN.
THROUGH SUN, CAD WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FA
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. IT
REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW IN HEIGHT GIVEN PROGGED SKEWT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE FA. INITIALLY, THE ARCTIC AIR DEPTH AROUND 2700 FT
IS PROGGED TO DECAY TO BELOW 1400 FT LATER TONIGHT INLAND...AND
TO LESS THAN 700 FT AT THE COAST. THIS IN RESPONSE TO S-SW FLOW
EATING AWAY THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM ABOVE. AT THE SFC, WINDS
TO VEER FROM N-NNE TO TO NE-ENE, PUSHING IN MILD AIR FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC, EVEN WITH FLOW ACROSS SSTS AROUND 50 PUSHING
INLAND, ITS ENOUGH TO PUT A DAMPER AND LIMIT WINTRY PCPN
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
EXPECT MOISTURE, WITH ORIGINS FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF,
TO FURTHER OVERSPREAD THE SFC BASED ARCTIC AIR MASS LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE WARM NOSE TO EXPAND
IN DEPTH LATER TONIGHT THRU SUN, AND THIS WILL LIMIT PCPN TO
POSSIBLE SLEET AT THE START, BUT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN EVENT
LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUN. THE PCPN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE
TO PLAIN RAIN AS THIS WARM NOSE INCREASES ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. THE QUESTION RESIDES OF WHETHER ABOVE
32 READINGS REACH THE ICE STORM WARNING AREAS DURING SUN. AT
THIS POINT, MODEL CONSENSUS SAYS YES, BUT PRIOR TO THOSE MILD
TEMPS REACHING THERE, TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS/ACCRETIONS WILL
REACH 0.25 INCHES. ELSEWHERE, LIKELY RANGING FROM A TRACE TO
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES AT THE COAST TO 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN
BETWEEN.
THESE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL PERSIST THRU SUN NIGHT AS A
WEAK SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, FURTHER DRAWING IN
MILDER AIR. AT THIS POINT, HAVE INDICATED 40S TO 50S AT THE
COAST FOR LATE DAY HIGHS SUN AND REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
ALTOGETHER SUN NIGHT. THUS THE PCPN THAT FALLS LATER SUN AFTN
THRU SUN NIGHT, AS THE LOW PASSES BY, WILL BE PLAIN RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXPECT DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
ONCE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH
TUES WITH THE 850 TEMPS DROPPING CLOSE TO -10 C. ALTHOUGH TEMPS
WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEY WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AND ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE THURS AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH TEENS FOR LOWS
BOTH MON NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EVEN COLDER APPARENT TEMPS OR WIND CHILLS. THEREFORE WOULD
EXPECT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH MON NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILL TEMPS LESS THAN 15C. TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S BOTH MON AND THURS, WITH OTHER
DAYS MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU GENERALLY 18Z WITH 4K-6K FT
CEILINGS DOMINATING. THERE-AFTER, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
AS THE REMAINDER OF SAT AFTN PROGRESSES, POSSIBLY REACHING MVFR
PRIOR TO SUNSET. LOOK FOR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER AS
OVERRUNNING TYPE CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY PCPN FILL IN ACROSS SE
NC AND NE SC, GENERALLY BETWEEN 01Z-08Z, WHICH WILL BE COVERED
WITH PROB30 IFR GROUPS. WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH, HAVE INDICATED
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR ILM/FLO/LBT. HAVE EVEN GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE FZRA FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THRUOUT THE PRE-DAWN SUN HRS. PLAIN OLE LIQUID RAIN WILL
DOMINATE THE COASTAL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED, ILM MAY
SEE A PERIOD OF FZRA B4 TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 32 PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SUN. WINDS NNE TO NE 10-15 KT G20+ KT TO DOMINATE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING B4 DROPPING BACK TO AROUND 10
KT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING
THE AREA SUN THRU EARLY MON WITH PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THREAT WILL PRIMARILY
OCCUR AT LBT/FLO THRU MIDDAY SUN.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU WITH CAA AND DRIER
AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS. NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KT
WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR THRU TODAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT, WITH 9+ FOOTERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE PINCHED
GRADIENT RELAXES-SOME LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING NE WINDS TO
DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT WITH G25+ KT. SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 4
TO 8 FT RANGE. WEAK AND SMALL UNDERLYING SE SWELL WILL OCCUR BUT
DOMINANT-WISE, THE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES WIN. PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TODAY BUT THE MAIN REDUCING VSBY PCPN
OCCURS TONIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT. SEAS WILL RUN
5 TO 8 FT UNTIL SUBSIDING THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL REACH SCA
THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY
ON SUNDAY, BUT ONCE THIS MOVES NORTH UP THE COAST, WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW SUN AFTN AHEAD OF STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ONCE THIS
LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO SUN NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME NW INTO MON
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH TUES AND INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ096-099-105>110.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ017-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR SCZ032-033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/RGZ
DISCUSSION...DCH/RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RGZ
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