447
FXUS62 KILM 250750
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE HELD ONTO THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES A BIT LONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. THIS BASED ON THE LATEST SFC OBS TRENDS
AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA. HAVE TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE 32 BY
DAYBREAK AT THE COAST, REACHING ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL EXTEND THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA BUT WITH PCPN BEING
LIGHT AND PATCHY IN NATURE, HAVE BASICALLY KEPT THE SAME
FORECAST ICING ACCUMULATION VALUES, THUS NO CHANGE WITH ANY OF
THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY WINTER WEATHER HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER
STORM THROUGH THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WELL INLAND. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN
UNCHANGED. THE MILDER TEMPS, ABOVE 32 DEGREES, WILL BE A BIT
SLOWER TO MANIFEST, SPREADING FROM THE COAST AND INLAND TODAY
AND THEN REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA THRU
TONIGHT. REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING RAIN AND ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WINTER WEATHER HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS MORNING AT THE COAST AND
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON WELL INLAND. WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE MILDER TEMPS, ABOVE 32 DEGREES,
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO MANIFEST, SPREADING FROM THE COAST AND
INLAND TODAY AND THEN REMAINING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA THRU TONIGHT. REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
ONGOING CAD CONTINUES IN FULL TILT. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS
HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE FA, WITH 30-32 DEGREE READINGS
EVEN AT THE COAST. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME WITH SEVERITY
OF THIS CAD EVENT AS WELL AS THE COLDER TEMPS HAVING HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST,
WITH COASTAL GEORGETOWN COUNTY THE EXCEPTION, BUT THAT MAY NEED
TO BE RE- VISITED GIVEN LATEST PCPN TRENDS AND THE DENSE SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR STILL IN PLACE. HIGH RES MODELS STILL WANT TO DECAY
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS FROM TOP/DOWN AND ALSO FROM EAST TO WEST AS
MILD FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE FA. LATEST SAT IMAGERY
DEPICTING THE LOW/MID LEVELS ALSO CONFIRMS THIS TREND. TIMING IS
THE PROBLEM CHILD HERE, WITH REGARD TO THE MILDER TEMPS RAISING
THE THE TEMPS ABOVE 32, AND THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. AS MENTIONED PRIOR, HAVE EXTENDED THE OCCURRENCE
OF THE FREEZING PCPN AND THE 32 DEGREE OR LESS READINGS. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE ICE ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE COAST TO ONE TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS FROM THE COAST TO I-95 AND UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
ONCE THE CAD CEASES, TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S INLAND AND
50S AT THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY CONTINUE THRU
THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD GIVE
AMPLE TIME FOR MELTING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA, WITH
OBVIOUSLY THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 TAKING LONGER TO
MELT. THE PCPN EXTENDING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS FROM THE PASSAGE OF A 5H S/W TROF
(THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED 5H LOW IN THE PACIFIC) WILL RESULT IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED TSTORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK AS DEEP
MID TO UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
ARCTIC AIR FLOWING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE 850 TEMPS DIP TO -10
C MON NIGHT AND THURS NIGHT AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO -15 C NEXT
WEEKEND. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS MON NIGHT
AND THURS NIGHT WITH STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. SHOULD NOT SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AT
LEAST A WEEK FROM MON. THESE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT
AND THURS NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR, BY DAYBREAK THE LATEST, ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS AS THE ATM COLUMN IS LOW TO MOISTEN UP, GIVEN THE
DRY ASPECT OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA
ATM. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 32 AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND
DAYBREAK, TAKING A BIT LONGER, MIDDAY THRU MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INLAND TERMINALS. AS A RESULT, THE ENDING OF THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH JUST PLAIN TRAIN IN ITS PLACE.
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL EXTEND IN THE AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING
WITH THE THREAT FOR REDUCED VSBY IN FOG AND SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO
INDICATED A PROB30 THREAT FOR THUNDER 00Z THRU 06Z ALL
TERMINALS AS AN EMBEDDED NORTHEAST MOVING 5H S/W TROF PUSHES A
SFC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FA WITH PCPN ALIGNING AHEAD OF IT AND
WITH AVAILABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT AS THE CAD BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT G20 KT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH MILD TEMPS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED UP UNTIL
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
MON. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY MON AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...CAD BREAKING DOWN AND THE SFC PG TO RELAX-
SOME, RESULTING NE WINDS AT INITIALLY 15 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO NEARLY A VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 KT OR LESS DURING
TODAY AS THE COASTAL TROF GETS PULLED JUST INLAND AND ONSHORE.
TONIGHT, THE COASTAL FRONT ACTUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
WATERS ALTOGETHER WITH S-SW WINDS BECOMING DOMINANT AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER, WILL ALIGN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, PUSHING ACROSS THE
WATERS AND JUST OFFSHORE AROUND DAYBREAK MON. WITH COLD SSTS,
MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THOSE STRONGER MILD TEMP WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FT REALM
THIS PERIOD WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES, RELATIVELY SPEAKING,
DOMINATING GIVEN THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ONGOING
WITH SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH MON AND WINDS NW AT 20 TO 25
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HEADING INTO TUES, WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH TUES AND INTO WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ096-
099-105>110.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-
033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/RGZ
DISCUSSION...DCH/RGZ
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/RGZ
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