904
FXUS62 KILM 251908
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DARLINGTON, MARLBORO, DILLON, AND ROBESON COUNTIES HAS INCREASED FOR
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR FREEZING
RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND FOG INTO TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ENDING THE ICE THREAT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST.
- 2)AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALL
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME APPARENT TEMPERATURES
COULD NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
FREEZING RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND FOG INTO TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND ENDING THE ICE THREAT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
LINGERING COLD TEMPERATURES AND A THINNING COLD WEDGE WITH
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RIDING OVER IT ARE SUPPORTING
CONTINUED FREEZING DRIZZLE, MIST, AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST. OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS UNTIL A BAND OF RAIN ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THIS DENSE, COLD AIRMASS
HAS BEEN KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE TIME THIS BAND OF RAIN COMES IN. THUS, GROWING
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING ICE IN
PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON, MARLBORO, DILLON, AND ROBESON COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTY, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN ROBESON AND DILLON COUNTY.
THE INCOMING BAND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR WITHIN, AND WILL BE PRECEDED
BY, A SURGE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST DITCH EFFORT TO ERODE AWAY THE COLD WEDGE FROM THE TOP
DOWN. WHETHER THIS OCCURS IS STILL IN QUESTION, AND THUS,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA CARRY LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
STUBBORN NATURE OF THE COLD WEDGE. NEVERTHELESS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AT LEAST WARM INTO THE 40S IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING,
WITH LOW TO MID-50S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IF THE COLD
WEDGE CAN ERODE AWAY ENTIRELY. THIS BAND OF RAIN MAY ALSO BRING
OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARRIVES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.50" IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WHERE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM, MOIST AIR WITHIN AND BEHIND THE RAINFALL
BAND WILL KEEP A RISK FOR MIST OR FOG IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT, BEFORE BREEZY WEST WINDS BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR ON
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALL WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES COULD NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA MONDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE POURING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB BOTTOM OUT AT -10C, SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. A FEW KNOTS OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY-WORTHY VALUES
OF 15F ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES. AFTER A VERY
PALTRY RECOVERY WED AND WED NIGHT THE NEXT ARCTIC BOUNDARY ARRIVES
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SATURDAY, THE LATTER ACCOMPANIED BY
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT
WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
COLD AIR WILL BE SO DEEPLY ENTRENCHED THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD
VERY WELL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND OFFSHORE, A RARITY
INDEED.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS A
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THIS WEDGE WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST OR FOG AT INLAND TERMINALS
NEAR I-95 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW
TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND. BY THIS EVENING, THOSE INLAND SITES SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING, BUT IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. A BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL, BUT THIS CARRIES LOW
CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE, WITH RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
BEHIND THE RAIN, EXPECT MIST TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
CLEARING UP AFTER SUNRISE. BY MIDDAY, INLAND SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
RETURN WITH THE COAST POTENTIALLY NOT SEEING CIGS SCATTER OUT UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN AT COASTAL TERMINALS
UNTIL THE 18-00Z TIME PERIOD ON MONDAY. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BACK
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMPING UP THIS
EVENING INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE AS THE COLD WEDGE IS ERODED AWAY
OVER THE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A BAND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL SHIFT OVER THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL
TURN WESTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH AND
BRINGS AN END TO THE RAIN. WINDS BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 4-7 FT TONIGHT AMIDST BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW,
BEFORE VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE SERIES OF ARCTIC BOUNDARIES
PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS WIND WILL NOT GET MUCH A CHANCE OF
DEVIATING FROM N TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WIND SPEEDS WILL NEVER
GET A CHANCE TO SETTLE MUCH THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP AS THE LARGEST WAVES REMAIN OUTSIDE OF
THE 20NM FORECAST ZONES. SWELL ENERGY SIMILARLY REMAINS WELL OUT TO
SEA IN THE OFFSHORE FETCH LEAVING THE WIND CHOP THE DOMINANT WAVE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ096-
099-105>110.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-
033-039-054-055-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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