137
FXUS62 KILM 260721
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
221 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL ICE STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1AM EST 1/26/26 WITH NO
ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN/ICE ACCUMULATION THREATS EXPECTED.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NC
AND NORTHEAST SC FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM EST
TUESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY NEW ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THRU TUESDAY. WIND CHILL READINGS
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON DURING THE MENTIONED
ADVISORY PERIOD AS ACTIVE NW WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THRU TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA EVERY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- 3) LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND
MAY LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING, DEPOSITING A QUICK 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK MON, ENDED THE REMAINING SHOWERS
THREAT. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE CFP BUT LOOK FOR
SCOURING OF THE AIRMASS TO COMMENCE AS W TO NW FLOW BECOMES
DOMINANT. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR
THE ARCTIC HIGH CAA SURGE WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND
PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS AS CAA
AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG COMBINE. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT
COMPLETELY DURING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS,
TO AROUND 20 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THE GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS
COMBINED WILL YIELD WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE
RANGE LATER TONIGHT THRU EARLY TUE MORNING...WHICH HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEK. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA EVERY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEK. REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVE ON THU AND SAT,
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONTS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AT OR BELOW 15 DEGREES MOST NIGHTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY NIGHT WHERE APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
REACH 15 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA IS TUE
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK MAY INTERACT WITH A DIGGING 5H TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. IF
THIS INTERACTION OCCURS, THE LOW WOULD TRACK NORTHEAST, OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IN SITU COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN AN AIR MASS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SNOW. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF BOTH THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND THE 5H TROUGH WILL
DETERMINE IF THE LOW IS CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH OR IF IT JUST MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN FL AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EVEN IF THE LOW IS
PULLED NORTH BY THE TROUGH, IT WILL NEED TO PASS CLOSER TO SHORE.
FOR NOW THE LOW IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, BUT NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR CEILINGS TO DOMINATE THRU 12Z FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENTS TO
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS DURING MON MORNING AND FURTHER IMPROVING TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MON AFTN AND CONTINUING THRU 06Z TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH THE LLWS DUE TO
THE MODEST SW LOW LEVEL JET, WILL ALL GET SHUNTED OFF THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE AS THE SFC COLD FRONT ITSELF PUSHES OFF THE COAST
DURING THESE PREDAWN MON HRS. FROM LATE MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON LOOK FOR DOMINATE VFR CEILINGS TO FINALLY SETTLE IN AS
THE ARCTIC CAA SURGE PREVAILS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL VEER TO THE W-WNW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE CFP. ONCE
THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE, LOOK FOR GUSTY NW WINDS TO
PREVAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DOMINATE
THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU LATE TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH S-SW WINDS REMAIN TEMPORARILY BELOW THRESHOLDS, RISEN
SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM EARLIER CONTINUE. CFP SLATED
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, RESULTING IN PCPN COME TO AN END AND WINDS
VEERING TO THE W-WNW AT 10-20 KT. THE COLD SURGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN,
COMBINED WITH TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS
INCREASING TO SCA SPEED THRESHOLDS AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU MOST
OF TONIGHT. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 FT RANGE WILL,
TRANSITION TO A 3 TO 7 FT RANGE TONIGHT...WITH SOME PANCAKE LIKE
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE TRUE OFFSHORE WIND
TRAJECTORY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUE, WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF ARCTIC FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS, ENHANCING WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THU AND AGAIN
LATER FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. CURRENTLY IT DOES NOT APPEAR
HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED WED NIGHT, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEED FOR FRI NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE TUE WHEN
AWAY FROM SHORE 4-5 FT WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LONGER FETCH
AND ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF AN EASTERLY
SWELL AND MULTIPLE WIND WAVES.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/III
KEY MESSAGES...DCH/III
DISCUSSION...DCH/III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/III
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