802
FXUS62 KILM 262257
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
557 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE WITH A WINTER WEATHER EVENT THAT
FAVORS SNOW THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING
THE DETAILS, SUCH AS AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
OF 15 DEGREES OR LESS AT TIMES.
- 2) THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MAY LEAD TO SNOW IN NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST NC
THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW REGARDING THE
DETAILS, SUCH AS AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES OF 15 DEGREES OR LESS AT TIMES.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
FEW REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS/20S AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S/40S. BEYOND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT,
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EACH
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY EVEN BE NEEDED
THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AN OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY LEAD TO SNOW IN NORTHEAST SC AND
SOUTHEAST NC THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW
REGARDING THE DETAILS, SUCH AS AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND IMPACTS.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, AND
MAY ACTUALLY SEEP INTO THE HEART OF THE CAROLINAS. AT THE VERY
LEAST, THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. WHAT BECOMES VERY APPARENT VERY FAST IS THAT NOT ONLY DOES
THE SURFACE GET QUITE COLD, BUT GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC,
ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLES, ARE SOLIDLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. AT 850 MB SATURDAY NIGHT,
EURO IS SLIGHTLY COLDER, BUT EVEN SO, MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
SUITE FOR THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS HOVER BETWEEN -10C TO -15C,
MEASURING ONLY 4000-4500 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. EVEN UP TO THE
90TH PERCENTILE, THE 850 MB TEMPS MEASURE AT AROUND -3C TO -4C.
OVERALL, THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE COLDER SOLUTIONS THAN THE EURO,
BUT THE EURO ENSEMBLES ARE EVEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD
AIR ITSELF. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 850 MB TEMPS
ACROSS KMHX AND KCHS, THESE WOULD POTENTIALLY BE NEAR THE DAILY
MINIMUMS, AND COULD PERHAPS BREAK RECORDS. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
INDEED.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, I FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL HAVE A VERY
CHILLY WEEKEND AHEAD (A CALL BACK TO KEY MESSAGE 1 ABOVE).
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK LONG, BUT
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PARTICULARLY FRIGID. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING INLAND, WHILE THERE IS A BIT
MORE DEBATE AT THE COAST.
ENTER THE CONVERSATION ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION. INDEED, THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS OFFSHORE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. ONCE AGAIN, THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL PLAY A
VERY BIG ROLE IN HOW THIS WEEKEND PLAYS OUT. GENERALLY, THE GLOBAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT
MATURES, BUT VARY GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW, AND THE TIMING
AND SPEED IN WHICH THE LOW MATURES.
BASED ON HISTORICAL TRACK PATHS THAT FAVOR SNOW IN THESE PARTS, THE
EURO APPEARS TO HAVE THE MORE IDEAL, FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK, BUT THE
TROUBLE IS THAT IT DEVELOPS THE LOW MUCH TOO LATE TO PULL IN THE
MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR SNOW. IN AN EVEN MORE IRONIC TWIST, THE GFS
KEEPS THE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHICH USUALLY WARMS UP THE
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH FOR FROZEN PRECIP, BUT IT BRINGS IN SUCH A
DRAMATICALLY COLD AIR MASS THAT THE "WARMING" DOESN'T OVERCOME THE
32F MARK. THE ENSEMBLES GET EVEN MESSIER WHEN TRYING TO CULL OUT
DETAILS OF THIS LOW.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM IS VERY LOW
REGARDING HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIP WE SEE, THE TIMING OF IT, ETC. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT TO FIGURE OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, SO THERE IS NO
POINT IN HAVING SPECIFIC DISCUSSIONS ABOUT WHO SEES WHAT.
I GUESS THE ONE THING I CAN SAY ABOUT THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION PART
IS THAT THIS SETUP FAVORS SNOW MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I DON'T SEE
ANY INDICATION OF A WEDGE PATTERN THAT WOULD WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, WHICH ELIMINATES THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. IF ANY
WARMING OCCURS, IT WOULD BE FROM THE SURFACE LOW GETTING CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WOULD CREATE SOME KIND OF RAIN/SNOW LINE TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN
THE REGION. THE EURO ESPECIALLY FAVORS THIS KIND OF SETUP, WITH THE
CLASSIC 540 DAM LINE ROUGHLY BISECTING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND, GOES TO THE OTHER EXTREME AND PUTS THE 540
LINE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH IS.....HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
DRY AIR FROM THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WOULD ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
AMOUNTS AS WELL. IF THIS EVENT MATERIALIZES, THE SPECIFIC ONSET MAY
TAKE SOME TIME, AS RAIN OR SNOW TRIES TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMN.
WE'LL SEE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SW WINDS WILL RETURN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AHEAD OF
THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUE BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MORE FIRMLY INTO THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE CAUSING A LESSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS MAINLY
UP TO AROUND 30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT ARE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A SURGE IN THE WINDS OVER 15 KTS AS THEY
VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS INCREASE
BRIEFLY TO 2-4 FT BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING BACK TOWARDS 1-2 FT
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER VERY WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AGAIN THURSDAY, CREATING A SIMILAR TREND ALL OVER
AGAIN. WINDS STICK TO THE NNE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO FROM OFFSHORE. USUALLY WOULDN'T HAVE THIS
MUCH CONFIDENCE 5 DAYS OUT, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY
BY SATURDAY. DON'T WANT TO BE TOO CONFIDENT YET TO TALK ABOUT A GALE
WATCH, BUT EVEN GALES LOOK TO BE A FACTOR BY THAT POINT. WANT TO SEE
HOW THIS LOOKS MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES. SEAS GO UP
TOWARDS 3-4 FT AT THE COAST, 6-7 FT OUT 20 NM FROM SHORE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB/IGB
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/IGB
DISCUSSION...RJB/IGB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RJB/IGB
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