907
FXUS62 KILM 270637
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
137 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE A STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
APPEARS LIKELY, ANY AFFECTS LOCALLY REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
FOR THE FORECAST THRU TODAY, HAVE LOWERED SFC DEWPOINTS, TEMPS
AND EVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HREF MODEL
DATA HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE ONGOING CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED
ATTM AND WILL USE ITS DATA THRU THIS EVENING. THIS INFLUX OF
DRY ARCTIC AIR HAS RESULTED IN ACTIVE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN
THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM THIS MORNING. WEAK WAA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS, WILL KEEP MINS FROM DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. EVEN WITH
ACTIVE SW BECOMING NW WINDS OVERNIGHT, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16 DEGREES FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.
- 2) DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16
DEGREES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THE NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, INTO NEXT WEEK. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2:...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
A SOUTHERN STREAM/GULF COAST SHORTWAVE AND AN IMPRESSIVE 5H TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY FRI INTO SAT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN IMPRESSIVE STORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THE IN SITU AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE. THE SETUP WOULD SUGGEST SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ISN'T AN OPTION. OF COURSE THIS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LOW WELL
OFFSHORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM AIR INTRUDING ABOVE THE SURFACE
LAYER IS QUITE LOW. THE KEY TO THIS EVENT WILL BE THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND THE UNUSUALLY STRONG
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. THEIR INTERACTION WILL DETERMINE IF THE STORM
IS A BOOM OR A BUST LOCALLY.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM NORTH OF HUDSON BAY
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ONTO THE CONTINENT FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH AREAS ARE SOMEWHAT DATA LIMITED WHICH WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ACCURACY OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS IS EVIDENCED BY GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE EVEN LARGE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS WITHIN
ANY ONE SUITE OF GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT EXISTS, BUT UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER
IT'S HARD TO BE SPECIFIC. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THRU THE 24 HR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. FOR THIS 24 HR
PERIOD, A WIND FORECAST ISSUE. WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAT WILL DIMINISH-SOME DURING DAYTIME MORNING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AS A LEE SIDE SFC TROF DEVELOPS BY
THIS AFTN. COULD SEE SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY DURING THIS AFTN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS. AFTER SUNSET, SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MINUS THE GUSTINESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. COUPLE
PASSAGES OF RE-ENFORCING DRY ARCTIC FRONTS, 1 EARLY WED MORNING
AND THE NEXT THU NIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS
THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO
TUE MORNING FROM NW-NNW 15-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT.
THE SFC PG RELAXES JUST ENOUGH AND THE CAA EITHER LIGHTENS UP OR
BECOMES NEUTRAL TUE MORNING, WITH THE END RESULT OF WINDS
DIMINISHING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO SW TO WSW 10-15 KT THIS AFTN AS AN INLAND LEE SIDE
TROF DEVELOPS. THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO OCCUR DURING THE
PRE-DAWN WED HRS, AND HAVE INDICATED A VEERING WIND SHIFT TO
THE W TO WNW AT SCA THRESHOLDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR ITS OCCURRENCE GIVEN A COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO IT PRIOR TO THE
NEXT SURGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED
MORNING AND ASSOCIATED WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KT
INTO THE EVENING. COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY THU WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 10 KT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRI AND
SAT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING SAT AND GRADUALLY BACKING TO
NORTHWEST.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD LEAD TO WINDS OF AT LEAST
GALE FORCE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. HOWEVER WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW
HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 35KT. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP SEAS 2
FT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE ENHANCED
SPEEDS THU MORNING LEADING TO SOME 3-4 FT SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS
START TO BUILD SAT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS, BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH AN
OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL
BE A MIX OF AN EASTERLY SWELL (THROUGH SAT) WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND
WAVE BECOMING NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III/DCH
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/III
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