192
FXUS62 KILM 271136
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
PREVIOUSLY AT 137 AM ...
WHILE A STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND
APPEARS LIKELY, ANY AFFECTS LOCALLY REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
FOR THE FORECAST THRU TODAY, HAVE LOWERED SFC DEWPOINTS, TEMPS
AND EVEN TODAYS MAX TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST. HREF MODEL
DATA HAS BEEN CLOSE TO THE ONGOING CONDITIONS BEING EXPERIENCED
ATTM AND WILL USE ITS DATA THRU THIS EVENING. THIS INFLUX OF
DRY ARCTIC AIR HAS RESULTED IN ACTIVE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN
THE 7 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE AT TIMES. THE CURRENT COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9 AM THIS MORNING. WEAK WAA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED
HRS, WILL KEEP MINS FROM DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. EVEN WITH
ACTIVE SW BECOMING NW WINDS OVERNIGHT, IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16 DEGREES FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.
- 2) DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16
DEGREES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THE
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INLAND, INTO NEXT WEEK. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2:...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
A SOUTHERN STREAM/GULF COAST SHORTWAVE AND AN IMPRESSIVE 5H
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY FRI INTO
SAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN IMPRESSIVE STORM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE IN SITU AIR MASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE. THE
SETUP WOULD SUGGEST SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ISN'T AN OPTION. OF
COURSE THIS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE, BUT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARM AIR INTRUDING ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER IS QUITE LOW. THE KEY
TO THIS EVENT WILL BE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND THE UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH.
THEIR INTERACTION WILL DETERMINE IF THE STORM IS A BOOM OR A
BUST LOCALLY.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE TROUGH ORIGINATES FROM NORTH OF HUDSON
BAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ONTO THE
CONTINENT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BOTH AREAS ARE SOMEWHAT DATA
LIMITED WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ACCURACY OF THE
GUIDANCE. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND THIS IS EVIDENCED BY
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM
NOTHING TO SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE
EVEN LARGE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS WITHIN ANY ONE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
EVENT EXISTS, BUT UNTIL DETAILS BECOME CLEARER IT'S HARD TO BE
SPECIFIC. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THRU THE 24 HR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. FOR THIS 24 HR
PERIOD, MAINLY A WIND DIRECTION TIMING FORECAST. NW AOB 10 KT
WILL BACK TO THE SW AT THE SAME SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
SIDE SFC TROF DEVELOPS. COULD SEE SW WINDS GUST TO 15 TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AFTER SUNSET, SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MINUS THE GUSTINESS, THEN VEER BACK TO THE NW
AROUND 5 KT AS THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OCCURS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. COUPLE
PASSAGES OF RE-ENFORCING DRY ARCTIC FRONTS, 1 EARLY WED
MORNING AND THE NEXT THU NIGHT. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW WITH WINTRY PCPN
TRACKS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
INTO TUE MORNING FROM NW-NNW 15-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 KT. THE SFC PG RELAXES JUST ENOUGH AND THE CAA EITHER
LIGHTENS UP OR BECOMES NEUTRAL TUE MORNING, WITH THE END RESULT
OF WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
TUE. WINDS DIMINISH TO SW TO WSW 10-15 KT THIS AFTN AS AN INLAND
LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS. THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO OCCUR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED HRS, AND HAVE INDICATED A VEERING WIND
SHIFT TO THE W TO WNW AT SCA THRESHOLDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MODERATE FOR ITS OCCURRENCE GIVEN A COLD/ARCTIC AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO IT PRIOR TO THE
NEXT SURGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WED
MORNING AND ASSOCIATED WEAK GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS AROUND 10 KT
INTO THE EVENING. COLDER AIR ARRIVES EARLY THU WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING TO A SOLID 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO 10 KT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRI AND
SAT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING SAT AND GRADUALLY BACKING TO
NORTHWEST.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD LEAD TO WINDS OF AT
LEAST GALE FORCE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. HOWEVER WITH CONFIDENCE
BEING LOW HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 35KT. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 FT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE ENHANCED SPEEDS THU MORNING LEADING TO SOME 3-4 FT
SEAS AWAY FROM SHORE. SEAS START TO BUILD SAT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING WINDS, BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO WIND
SPEEDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DOUBLE DIGIT
SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF AN EASTERLY
SWELL (THROUGH SAT) WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE BECOMING
NORTHWEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-
096-099-105>110.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-
023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...DCH/III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/III
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