314
FXUS62 KILM 272313
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
613 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MULTIPLE ARCTIC FRONTS BRING FRIGID AIR TO THE AREA, WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS LATER THIS WEEK.
- 2) DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MULTIPLE ARCTIC FRONTS BRING FRIGID AIR TO THE
AREA, WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS LATER THIS WEEK.
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEK, INCLUDING ONE TONIGHT,
AND ANOTHER THURSDAY. WHILE THESE FRONTS WON'T BE BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION, THEY WILL BE REINFORCING SOME DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE
40S AT BEST, BEFORE HAVING A CHANCE TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE
LOWER 50S IN PARTS OF THE GRAND STRAND BY FRIDAY.
LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S. THE TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS IN PARTS OF BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES MAY HAVE WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SERIOUSLY CHANGES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO
FIGURE OUT ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S POTENTIAL WINTER STORM (SEE KEY
MESSAGE 2 BELOW). BUT SNOW OR NO SNOW, THE EXTREME COLD IS A
SIGNIFICANT STORY UNTO ITSELF. THE STRONGEST ARCTIC BLAST YET DUE TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING WIND CHILLS DOWN BELOW 15F, WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT, WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD SINK TO NEAR 0F
(FIRST TIME I'VE SEEN THAT IN MY 7+ YEARS OF WORKING AT THIS
OFFICE).
WIND CHILLS VERY SLOWLY RECOVER GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
STILL REMAIN EASILY UNDER 15F.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS EXTREME COLD, REMEMBERING TO
PROTECT THE 4 PS: PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES. GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE TO LEARN MORE ON HOW TO PREPARE.
KEY MESSAGE 2:...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
REGARDING THE SETUP FOR THIS WEEKEND, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. DEEP,
COLD AIR OVER LAND PAIRED WITH GULF MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE LOW
COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER TO OUR CWA. WITH THIS RECENT RUN OF
GUIDANCE I'M NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS,
THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A PURELY SNOW SETUP.
THE ISSUES ARE COMING FROM THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. TOO FAR AWAY, NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW, BIG BUST. ANY
CLOSER, SEVERAL INCHES BECOME POSSIBLE. I'M NOT SEEING ANY
CONSISTENCY IN THE RECENT RUNS, SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOWFALL TOTALS
WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. TRENDS I'M NOTICING IN THE RECENT NBM
RUN IS LESS SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR THE COAST OF NE SC, BUT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY I'M NOT SURE IF THIS IS THE START OF A
MEANINGFUL TREND OR NOT. FUTURE RUNS SHOULD MAKE THIS MORE CLEAR.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE START OF THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES IN FROM THE SE. THE LOW WILL MOVE
CLOSEST TO OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY, WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
HIGHEST. FOR NOW, THE EVENT SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TRAVELS TO OUR NE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. ADDED SOME LLWS FOR THIS EVENING WITH A
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. CIRRUS LATE TONIGHT WILL CLEAR WITH THE
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TOMORROW.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM, BUT THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS UP IN
THE AIR BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE W TO WSW ON THE RISE
AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW GUSTS UP TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE THIS
EVENING, BUT IT'S NOT CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE. SEAS
GET NUDGED UP TOWARDS 2-4 FT AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT STARTS TO
GRADUALLY COME DOWN HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE NNE AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. SEAS GRADUALLY COME
BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS THEN GO BACK
TOWARDS THE SW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
FOR NOW. CALMER WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL AN APPROACHING
OFFSHORE LOW BRINGS GALE FORCE GUSTS AND WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. SEAS 2-4 FT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMING LARGELY 2 FT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A LARGE INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND JUST LIKE
THE WINDS. HIGHEST WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 4-7 FT, 9 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ~20 NM OFF CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB/21/LEW
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/LEW
DISCUSSION...IGB/LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...IGB/LEW
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