466
FXUS62 KILM 281109
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
609 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND NO
WIND HAS RESULTED IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16 DEGREES FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.
- 2) DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BELOW 16
DEGREES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THE
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
THU NIGHT AND IS LIKELY FOR INLAND AREAS FRI NIGHT. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2:...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING WINTER WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE, BUT THE FINER DETAILS
REMAIN IN QUESTION. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE HELPS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE
THIS WEEK, WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE
HEADING NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE A 5H TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL INTERACT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW.
THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION AND THE LOCATION OF THESE 2
FEATURES AT THAT TIME WILL DETERMINE IF THE LOCAL AREA GETS
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES) AND HOW MUCH FALLS. THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY DIFFERENCES
IN THE WAY THE 5H TROUGH IS BEING HANDLED BY THE GUIDANCE. IT'S
SPEED, TILT, STRENGTH WILL ALL BE FACTORS IN DETERMINING WHERE
THE SNOW FALLS AND WHERE THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENTS SET UP.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A SYSTEM WHERE SNOW TOTALS COULD RANGE
SEVERAL INCHES ACROSS COUNTY. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER POINTS OF THE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE
LOW GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. DO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW VS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN, WHERE PRECIPITATION
FALLS, AND DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE AND 5H LOWS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OF
THE LOW OFFSHORE, WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THIS
WILL HAPPEN NORTH OF THE AREA. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE 5H
LOW IS ANOTHER SOURCE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. IF THE DRY SLOT
IS STRONGER AND FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING, TOTAL QPF
COULD END UP LOWER. CONSIDERING ALL THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY
AND LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND THE PROBABILISTIC DATA SETS
OF THE NBM CAN MAKE A FEW EDUCATED GUESSES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SNOW WOULD BE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LIKELY TOTAL QPF IS ON THE
ORDER OF 0.20"-0.40", HOWEVER IF EVERYTHING LINES UP PERFECT QPF
COULD BE 2 OR 3 TIMES HIGHER. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO BE
SORTED OUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO PLANS FOR WATCHES TONIGHT, BUT
IF TRENDS CONTINUE WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE THEM ISSUED
TOMORROW.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRUOUT THE 24 HR TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD.
ONLY CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THIN/OPAQUE CIRRUS AT
20K-30K FT THRU THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF NW TO N WINDS SURGE AROUND
10 KT THRU MIDDAY. WINDS BACK TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
DROP TO AOB 5 KT THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED ONCE AGAIN BY ANOTHER
MINI SURGE, NW-N 5-9 KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN THU HRS.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND AS A
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINTER STORM AFFECTS THE CAROLINAS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...
RE-ENFORCING COLD SURGE TO AFFECT THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING,
INSTIGATED BY A CFP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS, FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF CAA SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY A SEMI- TIGHTENED SFC PG THRU
MIDDAY. THE NNW-N WIND SURGE WILL DIMINISH-SOME THIS AFTERNOON
THRU TONIGHT, TO A SW-WSW DIRECTION AS THE SFC RELAXES AND THE
CAA TURNS NEUTRAL. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT AND PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT PERIOD LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES. AN
UNDERLYING SMALL EASTERLY SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS WILL REMAIN
PRESENT AND ACCOUNTED FOR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE THEME INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAKENING
NORTHWEST SURGE THU MORNING WITH WINDS THEN VEERING TO NORTHEAST
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST MOVES
NORTHEAST, RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AT SOME POINT (LIKELY ONCE ITS
NORTH OF THE WATERS) WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AT
LEAST GALE FORCE AND POSSIBLY HITTING STORM FORCE. CONDITIONS
FRI NIGHT WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE, EXPECT A WEEKEND OF
HEADLINES. INITIALLY SEAS ARE LIMITED TO 2-3 FT BY THE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT, BUT AS WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST FRI INTO SAT SEAS WILL
BUILD. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE/NORTHWEST LATER SAT AND
SUN, BUT EVEN WITH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS BUILDS SEAS TO 6FT OR HIGHER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOUBLE
DIGIT SEAS SUN. ALTHOUGH A WEAK EASTERLY SWELL WILL BE PRESENT,
THE WIND WAVE, FROM THE SOUTH THU INTO FRI AND THEN NORTHEAST BY
THE WEEKEND, WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...III
KEY MESSAGES...III
DISCUSSION...III
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/III
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