561
FXUS62 KILM 021516
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1016 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS ENDED FOR OUR AREA. RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
INCLUDING OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES. NOTABLY, LUMBERTON (KLBT)
RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -1F, WHICH IS TIED FOR 2ND COLDEST
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD. FLORENCE (KFLO) GOT DOWN TO 8F, WHICH IS
TIED FOR 3RD COLDEST ON RECORD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND POSSIBLY
TONIGHT AS COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MELTING ON AREA
ROADWAYS AND ALLOW FOR RE-FREEZING TONIGHT.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE WINTRY
MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT AS COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT DAYTIME MELTING ON
AREA ROADWAYS AND ALLOW FOR RE-FREEZING TONIGHT.
AREA ROADWAYS REMAIN SNOW-COVERED AND TREACHEROUS THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO SUNRISE WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
DEPENDENT ON LOCAL SNOW COVER AND WINDS (SOME AREAS COULD DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS). ANY PARTIALLY MELTED AREAS OF COMPACTED SNOW AND
ICE HAVE ALREADY RE-FROZEN AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DANGEROUSLY SLICK
MORNING COMMUTE, SO PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE POOR DRIVING
CONDITIONS UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND MIDDAY.
DON'T BECOME TOO OVERCONFIDENT WHEN DRIVING ON SECTIONS OF ROADWAY
THAT DRIED-OUT ON SUNDAY. ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY
THROUGHOUT YOUR COMMUTE: HIGH SPEEDS ON DRY PAVEMENT WILL NOT
TRANSLATE WELL TO ICE-COVERED SECTIONS OF YOUR ROUTE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE
REGION AND FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WITH SOME MELTING. HOWEVER,
TREE-COVERED AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. A COLD AND DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CRASH AS THE SUN SETS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING AND ANY
MELTING THAT OCCURRED WILL AGAIN RE-FREEZE INTO AREAS OF COMPACTED
ICE AND SLUSH.
LOW TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHERE
TEMPERATURES (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WIND CHILLS) DROP TO AROUND 15
DEGREES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAKE
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. IF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT, THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND IS QUITE HIGH AND WE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF LIGHT WINDS HOLD OVER THE AREA, VERY
FEW OF OUR FORECAST ZONES WOULD TOUCH THE 15 DEGREE CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A
LITTLE WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THEIR DEPICTION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG WITH AN
EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT REACHING THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS RATHER
MESSY DURING THIS TIME WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OUTLINING A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MID LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME JUST SOUTHWESTERLY ENOUGH TO TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE
AND COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD RISE TO JUST ABOVE 1
INCH WEDNESDAY. POPS ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS
FRONT WHILE 6-8KFT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ALOFT WITHIN THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD DIP
LOW ENOUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN A LITTLE SNOW TO FALL AS
PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY SMALL AND THERE IS NOT
UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT IN MODELS THAT COLD AIR WILL BUILD IN FAST
ENOUGH OR THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR PRECIPITATION
ISSUES TO ARISE. REGARDLESS, DEEP DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY WITH FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAPIDLY DROPPING
AWAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.
EACH DAY SINCE JANUARY 24 HAS HAD COLDER THAN NORMAL DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD ALSO HAVE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INCLUDING SOME CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS COMING UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S MAY EXIST CONCURRENTLY WITH ENOUGH WIND TO
REACH THE 15-DEGREE WIND CHILL TRIGGER FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.
USING OUR OBSERVED HIGHS AND LOWS SINCE JANUARY 24 PLUS OUR
FORECASTS THROUGH FEB 8, WILMINGTON'S 16-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
COULD END UP THE LOWEST SINCE THE LONG STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER
FROM 12/25/2017 THROUGH 1/9/2018.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS TURN SW THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS FLORIDA.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RESTRICTIONS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... RAPIDLY IMPROVING GRADIENT HAS SEEN A DECREASE IN
GUSTS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRAVERSES FL FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AS SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 2-3 FEET
BY THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA
TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA, ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20
KT TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
REACH THE COASTLINE THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE'S A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THURSDAY MORNING NEAR CAPE FEAR, BUT THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT-
LIVED MARINE EVENT IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE NEXT APPROACHING
FRONT COULD LEAD TO INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FEB 2 - FEB 3
ILM: 17 IN 1980; 13 IN 1917
FLO: 18 IN 1980; 19 IN 1980
CRE: 20 IN 1945; 19 IN 1942
LBT: 11 IN 1980; 13 IN 1980
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...VAO
KEY MESSAGES...TRA
DISCUSSION...TRA/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
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