877
FXUS62 KILM 022337
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
637 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PENDER COUNTY
TONIGHT FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS AROUND 10 DEGREES.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR MASS PAIRED WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING
FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS.
2) LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A LITTLE
WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD AIR MASS PAIRED WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMING FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE NOT AS
COLD AS THIS MORNING, THESE TEMPS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
THOSE OUTSIDE AND WITHOUT SHELTER. WHILE WINDS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
FROM THE SOUTH, THE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW DUE TO
ELEVATED SSW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS
FROM TRULY CRASHING OVERNIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR INLAND PENDER COUNTY, WHERE TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DROP TO 15F OR LOWER OVERNIGHT.
THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
PROLONGED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, WITH ANY MELTING TODAY REFREEZING
ON THE ROADS TONIGHT. GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH WAA KICKING IN
EARLY TOMORROW AS RIDGE PASSES TO THE SOUTH, HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY
ARE FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 40S (WITH LOW 50S FOR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES). THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO QUICKENED IMPROVEMENTS TO
SNOW/ICE COVERAGE. AND WITH FORECASTED TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN FORECASTED WEDNESDAY, SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SEEN BY MID-WEEK, WITH PERHAPS LINGERING
SNOW COVERAGE IN PLACES THAT HAD HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND IN
SHADED/PROTECTED AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A
LITTLE WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING THIS
UPCOMING SYSTEM AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING OF
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIDWEEK. LOOKS TO BE PLENTY
WARM ENOUGH ON THE FRONT END FOR PLAIN RAIN WITH TEMPS WED IN
THE 40S TO LWR 50S. FOLLOWING THE SFC COLD FROPA, THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH, BUT POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE
RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP
POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MIX, AND ANY
AMOUNTS BEING BE VERY LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT OVERALL UPR-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
FORTUNATELY SEVERAL OF THE DAYS SHOULD HAVE HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50
DEGREES - WARMER THAN AS OF LATE, BUT LOW TEMPS STARTING WED
NIGHT SHOULD BE CONSISTENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN
IN THE TEENS OVER INLAND AREAS.
USING OUR OBSERVED HIGHS AND LOWS SINCE JANUARY 24 PLUS OUR
FORECASTS THROUGH FEB 8, WILMINGTON'S 16-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
COULD END UP THE LOWEST SINCE THE LONG STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER
FROM 12/25/2017 THROUGH 1/9/2018.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. VERY LOW RISK OF SHALLOW FOG ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SE NC AND NE SC AROUND 12Z, ESPECIALLY AT KLBT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH RESTRICTIONS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15 KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS 2-3 FT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND
SLOWLY WEAKENING NE SWELL.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT COLD FROPA OCCURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POST FROPA CAA POSSIBLY LEADING TO
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS N WINDS GUST TO 20-25
KT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP AGAIN FOR LATE
FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT, LIKELY BRINGING
AT LEAST MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES. NOTABLY, LUMBERTON
(KLBT) RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -1F, WHICH IS TIED FOR 2ND
ALL-TIME COLDEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD. FLORENCE (KFLO) GOT
DOWN TO 8F, WHICH IS TIED FOR 3RD COLDEST ON RECORD AND IS THE
RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WILMINGTON'S (ILM) LOW OF
14F THIS MORNING BREAKS PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR FEB 2 OF 17F
(SET IN 1980) AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH (CRE) LOW OF 19F BREAKS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 20F SET IN 1945.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...MAS/VAO
DISCUSSION...MAS/VAO
AVIATION...RJB/VAO
MARINE...MAS/VAO
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