545
FXUS62 KILM 030617
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
117 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR BLACK ICE CONTINUES THROUGH
10 AM. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PENDER COUNTY UNTIL 9
AM FOR TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING.
2) RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
MORNING. WHILE SOME AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOWFALL MAY STILL BE
DEALING WITH POOR ROAD CONDITIONS, OUR ENTIRE AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE, EVEN WHERE SIGNIFICANT MELTING HAS OCCURRED.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BLACK ICE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING: AROUND 10 AM. PRIMARY ROADS MAY
LOOK DRY OR LESS TREACHEROUS THAN SECONDARY AND LOCAL ROADS, BUT THE
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THESE PRIMARY ROADS CAN BE VERY DANGEROUS WHEN
BLACK ICE IS PREVALENT. BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND SHADY SECTIONS OF
ROADWAYS LIKELY HAVE NOT MELTED TO THE DEGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF
AREA ROADWAYS HAVE, SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. WITH A HIGHER
TRAFFIC VOLUME, USE EXTRA CAUTION BY SLOWING DOWN, INCREASE
FOLLOWING DISTANCES, AND REMAIN ALERT FOR BLACK ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL COLD AIR WILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS FREEZING RAIN
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME BACKED JUST ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO LIFT A
STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE OVERHEAD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
INCREASE TO 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES WHILE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPANDS
AT ALL LEVELS BETWEEN 290K-305K. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 80-100
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S, PRECLUDING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES AT THAT TIME.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OUT TO SEA. SHALLOW COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIVE THROUGH THE
30S, LIKELY MOVING DOWN TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE GRAND STRAND.
00Z RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE TOP OF THE POST-FRONTAL
MOIST LAYER WILL EXTEND ONLY UP TO 800 MB OR ABOUT 6000 FEET AGL.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN -5C MEANING
IT'S UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ICE WITHIN THE CLOUDS. THIS MEANS IF
SUFFICIENT LIFT EXISTS TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (BUT NO SNOW)
WOULD OCCUR DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. USUALLY IN SITUATIONS
WHERE COLD AIR IS CHASING MOISTURE LIKE THIS, THE AMOUNT OF
FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS DOES NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT ONLY A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN
CONSTITUTES A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-WORTHY EVENT WE'LL NEED
TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LIGHT WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. VFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST... MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. VFR THEREAFTER.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 3-4
FEET WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS GULF
MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT OFF THE NC/SC COASTLINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A SHIFT TO BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. DURING THE PERIOD OF
STRONGEST NORTH WINDS IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (25 KT) NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE AREA,
HOWEVER INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT
ANOTHER SHIFT TO COLD NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES. NOTABLY, LUMBERTON
(KLBT) RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -1F, WHICH IS TIED FOR 2ND
ALL-TIME COLDEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD. FLORENCE (KFLO) GOT
DOWN TO 8F, WHICH IS TIED FOR 3RD COLDEST ON RECORD AND IS THE
RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. WILMINGTON'S (ILM) LOW OF
14F THIS MORNING BREAKS PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR FEB 2 OF 17F
(SET IN 1980) AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH (CRE) LOW OF 19F BREAKS
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 20F SET IN 1945.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/21
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/21
DISCUSSION...TRA/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
CLIMATE...VAO
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