603
FXUS62 KILM 032345
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LOW RISK FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE ACROSS INLAND PENDER COUNTY THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LATER TONIGHT IF CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
FREEZING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR
ICE ACCUMULATION AND LIGHT PRECIP RATES LIKELY TO KEEP ANY
IMPACTS MINOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD AIR FILTERING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RAIN ENDS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH COULD AFFECT
THE MORNING COMMUTE, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND PRIMARILY NORTH
OF US-76.
2) NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH NEEDED RAIN WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD AIR FILTERING IN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE RAIN ENDS MAY LEAD TO LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH COULD
AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE, MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
PRIMARILY NORTH OF US-76.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
A MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PIVOT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A CHILLY AIRMASS
SEEPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THIS
SUBFREEZING AIR WILL ARRIVE AND WHETHER THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH THE
RAIN FOR LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON AT LEAST THE
MOST FAVORED ELEVATED SURFACES, LIKE TREE BRANCHES AND
POWER/COMMUNICATION LINES. WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING AT NIGHT,
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE
ACCUMULATION CAN OCCUR ON FAVORED SURFACES, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US-76. THIS MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY IF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY MORNING CAN REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE RAIN IS
STILL FALLING. EVEN IF RAIN EXITS BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING, THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ANTICIPATED LEADING UP TO THE
SUBFREEZING AIR'S ARRIVAL SHOULD WASH AWAY MOST OR ALL TREATMENT
ON ROADWAYS, THUS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE
FORMATION. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL IMPACT FROM ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR BLACK ICE SHOULD BE MINOR AT WORST AND LIMITED TO THE EARLY
TO MID-MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
BY MIDDAY, THINNING CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND END THE ICE THREAT. STEADY NORTH
WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT MOST PAVED
SURFACES THAT ARE NOT NEAR LEFTOVER SNOW PILES, SO EVEN WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 20S ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE BLACK
ICE THREAT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MUCH NEEDED RAIN
WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A NICE DOSE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL START TO CREEP IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, BEFORE THE MAIN SWATH
OF RAIN STARTS TO SET UP NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF, WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER KICKS UP TO NEAR AN INCH ALONG THIS
LINE, AIDED BY SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 285-300K. THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE BETTER RAINFALL
TOTALS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS. EVEN SO, "BETTER"
DOES NOT EQUATE TO "IDEAL" NECESSARILY, AS WE'RE GOING TO NEED
A LOT MORE RAIN TO ALLEVIATE THE GROWING DROUGHT CONCERNS.
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.10" THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENT. WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.
ANOTHER PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD HELP CONSIDERABLY
WITH THE MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 30+ HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS STARTING INLAND AT KLBT/KFLO AROUND 15Z
WITH MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COAST AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR STARTING AROUND
21Z. CIGS COULD REACH IFR LEVELS NEAR THE COAST TOWARD THE END
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY ENOUGH ON WED TO CAUSE SOME IFR
OR WORSE VSBY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.
ALSO, AN INCREASING 2K FOOT SW JET AROUND 35 KT WILL CAUSE LLWS
AT KFLO/KLBT OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH RAIN, POSSIBLY BECOMING FREEZING
RAIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AT KLBT/KILM. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, REACHING VFR AGAIN SOMETIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY GUST
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS LINGER NEAR 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.. A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, VEERING WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST OR
WEST TO NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KTS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS SLACKEN AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15-20 KTS, WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLACKENING
AGAIN INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY IN TANDEM WITH
THE WINDS, BUT MAINLY HOLD BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR DUE TO
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 6 FT OVER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 12 DEGREES OCCURRED TODAY AT
LUMBERTON, NC (KLBT), BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 13 DEGREES SET
IN 1917.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RJB
KEY MESSAGES...IGB/ABW
DISCUSSION...IGB/ABW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...IGB/ABW
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