487
FXUS62 KILM 041050
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
550 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A
TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, ENDING AS NON-IMPACTFUL
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
2) ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, ENDING
AS NON-IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES A FULL 10-15 DEGREES
WARMER SINCE SUNSET AND MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SETTLED INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. WITHIN THIS COMPARATIVELY WARMER AIR MASS, MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE INCREASED ALONG ALL SIGNIFICANT THETA
LEVELS. AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY, THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LIQUID RAIN.
THE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AS OF THE 1
AM AFD WINDOW, BUT A SINKING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN VA AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SW WILL PUSH THAT CORRIDOR
OF LIFT AND RAIN EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR INLAND AREAS. THIS IS
CORROBORATED BY CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF BOTH FEATURES WILL LIKELY CAUSE COASTAL AREAS TO STAY
DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LEVEL CAA
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHWARD. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS WINDOW OF ENHANCED LIFT.
THE EXTENDED RESIDENCE OF MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A RESPECTABLE
AMOUNT OF QPF WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO AN INCH ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF I-95.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS. SOUNDINGS AT
LBT, EYF, AND ACZ IDENTIFY THE STRONG WARM NOSE LATE TONIGHT AND
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DUE TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF NEAR-SURFACE CAA.
THIS IMPLIES THAT NO OTHER P-TYPE (OTHER THAN LIQUID RAIN) IS
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,
SO PRECIP RATES WILL ALREADY BE HINDERED BY THE DEPTH OF SATURATION.
INTERMITTENT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
BETWEEN 08Z-14Z. HREF GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MOISTURE MAY BECOME
ENTIRELY INSUFFICIENT FOR PRECIP AS EARLY AS SUNRISE. SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND WEAK CAA WILL THEN FIGHT
DIURNAL FORCES BELOW A PROGRESSIVELY THINNING CLOUD LAYER. A TRACE
TO A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY AS OUR ROAD TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECOVERED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER,
CAUTION WOULD SUGGEST TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE
TRACE OF EXPECTED ICE, BUT, AGAIN, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK, CARVING OUT ANOTHER DEEP AND
COLD TROUGH. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD REACH NEAR 20 DEGREES INLAND. ENOUGH WIND MAY LINGER TO
PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD THE CRITICAL 15 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE
CAPE FEAR REGION. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS, FORECAST PRECIP CHANCES ARE NEAR ZERO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AND LASTLY, A CLIMATE NOTE: THE 13 DAY PERIOD JAN 27 THROUGH FEB 8
MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD IN WILMINGTON SINCE THE
ARCTIC CHILL OF EARLY JANUARY 2018. USING OBSERVED DATA AT
WILMINGTON PLUS OUR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS OUT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE
CALCULATED 13-DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 33.6 DEGREES F WOULD FALL
IN 20TH PLACE BEHIND JANUARY 2018, JANUARY 2010, JANUARY 2001,
DECEMBER 1989, AND OTHER HISTORIC ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE PRODUCING A FEW WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 12Z. THIS VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD NOT
TRANSLATE TO ANY RESTRICTIONS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MOISTURE
WILL DEEPEN AND MVFR SHOULD START TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST.
MVFR WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR. IN WARM ADVECTIVE REGIME (WINDS
OUT OF THE SW), EXPECT CIGS TO VARY AND REMAIN JUST BELOW THE 1K
FEET AGL THRESHOLD. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY, NE WINDS WILL INTRODUCE SHALLOW COLD AIR AND CIGS
CLOSE TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. IFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AT LBT
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST... WIDESPREAD IFR IMPROVES BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. VFR THEREAFTER.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS
INCREASE RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SURGE OF
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILDING DOWN THE COAST BEHIND
THURSDAY MORNING'S COLD FRONT COULD REACH 20-25 KNOTS FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD CENTER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
ZIPS FARTHER OUT TO SEA.
A SECOND PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DRY ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SYSTEMS LIKE THESE ARE SOMETIMES CALLED "CLIPPERS" AND
THIS ONE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 24 HOURS OF COLD GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...21
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/21
DISCUSSION...TRA/21
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page