004
FXUS62 KILM 050614
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY BLENDING IN 00Z HRRR AND
00Z NAMNEST. THIS ALSO AFFECTS FORECAST FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AREAS
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
-1) RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, BUT NOT BEFORE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS FROM LUMBERTON TO BURGAW.
-2) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VERY COLD WEEKEND. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, BUT
NOT BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS FROM LUMBERTON TO BURGAW.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT SHOULD COEXIST WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS LUMBERTON, ELIZABETHTOWN, AND
BURGAW WHERE A TRACE OR PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS. YESTERDAY'S RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AIR TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ICING ISSUES
ON SURFACE ROADS, BUT BRIDGES, OUTDOOR STAIRS, AND DECKS COULD PICK
UP A GLAZE OF ICE.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES IN DEFERENCE
TO THE WEDGE-LIKE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH DENSE CLOUDS ABOVE.
THIS IDEA IS FURTHER VALIDATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR AND
NAMNEST) THAT PERFORMED RELATIVELY WELL DURING THE JANUARY 25 ICE
EVENT. ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND NOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN STUCK IN THE
CHILLY 30S EVERYWHERE BENEATH A DENSE OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
CLEARING MAY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS BREAK
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR WANTS TO HOLD ONTO
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE GFS WITH POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. NBM BLENDS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
TO THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THERE'S NOTHING OBVIOUS TO SCOUR OUT TODAY'S LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VERY COLD WEEKEND.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THOUGH THE INITIAL ARCTIC FROPA IS FRIDAY THERE IS A SECONDARY PUSH
OF EVEN COLDER AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -10C
OVER NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE SLIGHT RECOVERY GETS UNDERWAY. THIS PAVES
THE WAY FOR A 1032MB HIGH TO PLUNGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS THAT ARE IN
EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGY. IN BETWEEN IS WHERE SOME
HAZARDS MAY COME INTO PLAY. AS SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW
20S/UPPER TEENS WIND CHILL VALUES COULD REACH ADVISORY-WORTHY VALUES
OF 15 OR LESS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERNMOST ZONES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19-20Z TODAY. IN
ADDITION, COLD AIR ARRIVING WHILE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS STILL
FALLING AT THE KLBT AIRPORT COULD LEAD TO SMALL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
THIS MORNING MAINLY BETWEEN 12-16Z. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD BE
VERY LOW BY THIS TIME, MINIMIZING THE AMOUNT OF ICE THAT
ACCUMULATES. ELSEWHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIQUID.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AT KLBT AND KFLO BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, 19-22Z, WITH IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY MAKING DOWN
TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER DARK.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF GROUND FOG OR
LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR CAPE FEAR AT 1 AM SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH AND PAST GEORGETOWN AND WINYAH BAY BY SUNRISE. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS FOR THE
WATERS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS, BUT HAS BEEN DROPPED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT APPEARS
WIND SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 20 KNOTS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF WILL RIDGE EASTWARD WITH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 2-3 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SURGE OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS BY NIGHTTIME. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF COLD AIR SATURDAY WILL KEEP HEADLINES IN FULL EFFECT.
PREVIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE WAS KEEPING 6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM
ZONES IN THE OFFSHORE FETCH THOUGH NOW THEY ARE DEPICTED ALONG
FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE IN THE
AGITATED POST-FRONTAL FLOW WHEREAS A BIT OF AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL
MIX IN WITH THE WIND CHOP BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WIND FIELDS COLLAPSE
TO NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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