265
FXUS62 KILM 051135
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FURTHER BY BLENDING IN
06Z HRRR AND 06Z NAMNEST. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S FOR
ELIZABETHTOWN THROUGH WILMINGTON, AND GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, BUT NOT BEFORE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS FROM LUMBERTON TO BURGAW.
2) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VERY COLD WEEKEND. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, BUT
NOT BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS FROM LUMBERTON TO BURGAW.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT SHOULD COEXIST WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS LUMBERTON,
ELIZABETHTOWN, AND BURGAW WHERE A TRACE OR PERHAPS A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS. YESTERDAY'S RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AIR TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THIS
MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ICING ISSUES ON SURFACE ROADS, BUT
BRIDGES, OUTDOOR STAIRS, AND DECKS COULD PICK UP A GLAZE OF ICE.
FORECAST HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES IN DEFERENCE
TO THE WEDGE-LIKE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH DENSE CLOUDS ABOVE.
THIS IDEA IS FURTHER VALIDATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (HRRR AND
NAMNEST) THAT PERFORMED RELATIVELY WELL DURING THE JANUARY 25 ICE
EVENT. ACROSS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND NOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN STUCK IN THE
CHILLY 30S EVERYWHERE BENEATH A DENSE OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
CLEARING MAY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS BREAK
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR WANTS TO HOLD ONTO
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE GFS WITH POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. NBM BLENDS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA
TO THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THERE'S NOTHING OBVIOUS TO SCOUR OUT TODAY'S LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VERY COLD WEEKEND.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH THE INITIAL ARCTIC FROPA IS FRIDAY THERE IS A SECONDARY
PUSH OF EVEN COLDER AIR ON SATURDAY WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO -10C OVER NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE SLIGHT RECOVERY GETS
UNDERWAY. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR A 1032MB HIGH TO PLUNGE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE HIGHS THAT ARE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES SHY OF
CLIMATOLOGY. IN BETWEEN IS WHERE SOME HAZARDS MAY COME INTO
PLAY. AS SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 20S/UPPER TEENS
WIND CHILL VALUES COULD REACH ADVISORY-WORTHY VALUES OF 15 OR
LESS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERNMOST ZONES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL LOCAL AIRPORTS EXCEPT KLBT.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOW
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR. MODEL TRENDS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TOWARD A FASTER BREAKUP OF THE LOW IFR
CEILINGS TODAY AND OUR NEW 12Z TAFS REFLECT THIS TREND. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 15Z AT KILM AND KFLO, AND BY
18Z AT KCRE AND KMYR. IT STILL MAY TAKE UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR
MVFR CEILINGS TO FRAGMENT.
THE OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS BELOW-FREEZING SURFACE AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE SINKING SOUTHWARD AND HAVE CHANGED
PRECIPITATION OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT
KLBT. THIS FZDZ/FZRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING POINT BETWEEN
12-15Z AT BOTH KFLO AND KILM BUT THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
TODAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF GROUND FOG OR
LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KFLO AND KLBT
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR CAPE FEAR AT 1 AM SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH AND PAST GEORGETOWN AND WINYAH BAY BY SUNRISE. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS FOR THE
WATERS NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS, BUT HAS BEEN DROPPED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT APPEARS
WIND SPEEDS WILL TOP OUT NEAR 20 KNOTS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE GULF WILL RIDGE EASTWARD WITH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 2-3 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING A SURGE OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS BY NIGHTTIME. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF COLD AIR SATURDAY WILL KEEP HEADLINES IN FULL EFFECT.
PREVIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE WAS KEEPING 6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM
ZONES IN THE OFFSHORE FETCH THOUGH NOW THEY ARE DEPICTED ALONG
FRYING PAN SHOALS. THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVE WILL DOMINATE IN THE
AGITATED POST-FRONTAL FLOW WHEREAS A BIT OF AN EASTERLY SWELL WILL
MIX IN WITH THE WIND CHOP BY SUNDAY/MONDAY AS WIND FIELDS COLLAPSE
TO NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ087-096-105.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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