159
FXUS62 KILM 051824
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND/OR SPOTS OF BLACK ICE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE CARE ON ROADWAYS,
PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
2) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS AND A VERY COLD
WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND/OR SPOTS OF BLACK ICE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE CARE ON ROADWAYS, PARTICULARLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE RECENT RAIN COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
FOR INLAND NE SC, AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO PICK UP ON THAT
THOUGH WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. THIS FOG PAIRED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG WHILE ALSO FREEZING
ANY WATER LEFT ON THE ROADWAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE RADIATE
OUT WITH THE CALM WINDS BUT THERE IS SOME ROUNDS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
THAT SHOULD HELP TO COMBAT THAT, SO HAVE ONLY LOWERED LOW TEMPS A
TAD FROM NBM. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE INLAND MIGHT BE DEALING WITH
MORE OF A FOG PROBLEM AND THE COAST MORE OF A BLACK ICE PROBLEM
SINCE THE ROADS STILL LOOK WET ON HIGHWAY CAMERAS. THERE'S SEVERAL
THINGS THAT WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES SO THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF GUIDANCE CAN ADD SOME
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS AND
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP DOWN NEAR 20 DEGREES AND
WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SAT NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 OR LESS, ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STARTING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A WARMER RETURN FLOW. 850
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM NEAR -12C ON SAT UP CLOSE TO 8C LATE MON
THROUGH WED. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MIDWEEK WARMER THAN OUR HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR CIGS WITH SOME VSBY ISSUES STICKING AROUND AT THE COAST, SHOULD
CLEAR UP WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN THE ISSUE WILL BE FOG
TONIGHT. FOR NOW BEST CHANCES ARE AT KFLO AND PERHAPS KLBT WHERE WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT MVFR OR MAYBE EVEN IFR VSBYS. ELSEWHERE THERE'S
A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS RESTRICTIONS BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...A NE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH
TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT, SO HAVE
KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURGE OF NW TO N WINDS BEHIND
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON SATURDAY. THE
STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST
SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH MOST WATERS IN 3 TO 5 FT WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP SUN INTO MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/LEW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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