914
FXUS62 KILM 060028
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
728 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEIGHTENED KEY MESSAGE #1. HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ADDRESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY ICY SPOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA GIVEN
LEFTOVER MELTING SNOW AND ANY STANDING WATER FROM THE RECENT
RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DROP TO AND BELOW 32 DEGREES THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND/OR SPOTS OF BLACK ICE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE CARE ON ROADWAYS,
PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
2) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS AND A VERY COLD
WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND/OR SPOTS
OF BLACK ICE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAKE CARE ON
ROADWAYS, PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THE RECENT RAIN COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
FOR INLAND NE SC, AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO PICK UP ON
THAT THOUGH WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. THIS FOG PAIRED
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT
AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S WOULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG WHILE
ALSO FREEZING ANY WATER LEFT ON THE ROADWAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT WE RADIATE OUT WITH THE CALM WINDS BUT THERE IS SOME ROUNDS
OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD HELP TO COMBAT THAT, SO HAVE
ONLY LOWERED LOW TEMPS A TAD FROM NBM. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
INLAND MIGHT BE DEALING WITH MORE OF A FOG PROBLEM AND THE COAST
MORE OF A BLACK ICE PROBLEM SINCE THE ROADS STILL LOOK WET ON
HIGHWAY CAMERAS. THERE'S SEVERAL THINGS THAT WILL HAVE TO COME
TOGETHER SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES SO THAT THE
NEXT ROUND OF GUIDANCE CAN ADD SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK WINDS AND
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP DOWN NEAR 20 DEGREES AND
WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SAT NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 OR LESS, ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM STARTING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A WARMER RETURN FLOW. 850
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM NEAR -12C ON SAT UP CLOSE TO 8C LATE MON
THROUGH WED. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS MIDWEEK WARMER THAN OUR HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS TO QUICKLY RISE TO VFR THIS EVENING, COMMENCING
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND REACHING THE COASTAL TERMINALS
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. THERE-AFTER, LOOKING AT HIGH ALTOCU OR LOW
CIRRUS CLOUD DECKS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS 24 HR PERIOD. HAVE
INCLUDED 3SM TO 5SM BR BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 2SM OR LESS
VSBYS ESPECIALLY IF WINDS GO CALM. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ACTIVE WNW-
NW WINDS AOB 5 KT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME
WSW-SW AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15+ KT POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z AND
CONTINUING THRU 00Z 2/7 AS THE NEXT COLD/ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...A NE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH
TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT, SO HAVE
KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURGE OF NW TO N WINDS BEHIND
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON SATURDAY. THE
STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE GREATEST
SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH MOST WATERS IN 3 TO 5 FT WITHIN 20
NM OF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP SUN INTO MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH/LEW
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ/LEW
DISCUSSION...RGZ/LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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