109
FXUS62 KILM 060555
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1255 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ONE FINAL JET MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE
THROUGH IN THE NE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST, DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BOTTOM OUT AT -7C TO
-12C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE NEAR 20
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH SOME UPPER TEENS OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. EVEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY THE FEW KT OF
WIND THAT REMAIN THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 15F FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS
WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITY DEVELOPING AT KFLO
BEFORE SUNRISE, OTHERWISE THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IS LOW (BUT NOT COMPLETELY ZERO) ELSEWHERE. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 20 KNOTS AT KFLO AFTER 18Z.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DEPTH OF CLOUDS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AFFECTING
THE KLBT AND KILM AIRPORTS BETWEEN 22Z FRI-02Z SAT. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-12 KNOTS AS DRY
AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONT AS MODELS AT 1000 AND 2000
FEET AGL SHOW SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30KT AND 40 KT, RESPECTIVELY,
AFTER 00-02Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MARINERS WANTING BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS LULL AS MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 8-11 PM FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A BURST OF
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD OF ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO BRING ADVISORY-WORTHY WIND GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
INCOMING HIGH AND THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW EASES FOR DECREASING AND
SLIGHTLY BACKING WINDS. WIND WAVES WILL BE ABATING BUT THERE WILL BE
AN EMERGENCE OF SOME ENE SWELL ENERGY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK TO
OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY FURTHER VEERING THE STILL LIGHTENING WINDS,
FALLING TO 10KT OR LESS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND WAVE ENERGY THOUGH
SPECTRAL PLOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 12 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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