216
FXUS62 KILM 061130
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ONE FINAL JET MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ON THE
THROUGH IN THE NE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL
OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST, DRIVING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BOTTOM OUT
AT -7C TO -12C FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL
BE NEAR 20 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WITH SOME UPPER TEENS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES. EVEN AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES CONSIDERABLY THE
FEW KT OF WIND THAT REMAIN THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
BELOW THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 15F FOR ALL BUT
PERHAPS WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD KFLO WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH 14Z, WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA IS TO BLAME FOR THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE
ARE LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS MOISTURE TO STREAM EASTWARD TO
THE COAST AFFECTING KMYR AND KCRE WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
KLBT AND KILM SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE. INLAND WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20
KT, PARTICULARLY AT KFLO.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEPTH OF CLOUDS FOR SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AFFECTING
THE KLBT AND KILM AIRPORTS BETWEEN 23Z FRI-03Z SAT. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-12
KNOTS AS DRY AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS HAVE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS MODELS
AT 1000 AND 2000 FEET AGL SHOW SPEEDS INCREASING TO 30KT AND 40
KT, RESPECTIVELY, AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. MARINERS WANTING BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS LULL AS MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE BETWEEN 8-11 PM FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A BURST OF
NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD OF ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD TO BRING ADVISORY-WORTHY WIND GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST
OF SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
INCOMING HIGH AND THE WELL OFFSHORE LOW EASES FOR DECREASING AND
SLIGHTLY BACKING WINDS. WIND WAVES WILL BE ABATING BUT THERE WILL BE
AN EMERGENCE OF SOME ENE SWELL ENERGY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK TO
OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY FURTHER VEERING THE STILL LIGHTENING WINDS,
FALLING TO 10KT OR LESS. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN POORLY DEFINED ON
TUESDAY BRINGING A FURTHER DECREASE IN WIND WAVE ENERGY THOUGH
SPECTRAL PLOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 12 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TRA/MBB
KEY MESSAGES...TRA/MBB
DISCUSSION...TRA/MBB
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/MBB
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