609
FXUS62 KILM 061842
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
142 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. OTHERWISE NO
MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PARTICULARLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS 10-15
DEGREES IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PARTICULARLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND
CHILLS 10-15 DEGREES IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY, COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST AREAS THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST PUSH OF COLD AIR WHICH WILL BE
ENHANCED SATURDAY AS A JET ALOFT WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST, WITH US ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT. THESE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (~30-35 KTS) SHOULD MIX DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME
MANIFESTING AS WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH. THIS PAIRED WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S WILL MAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS AROUND
OR BELOW FREEZING (A -10 DEG DIFFERENCE FROM THE FORECAST HIGHS).
THIS COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE AN OVERNIGHT
BREEZE WILL LINGER, DROPPING WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES TO WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO SATURDAY BUT MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS COULD END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED, AND THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE COLD WEATHER
AS WE WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE
A WAVE OF LLWS OVER ALL TAF SITES AS A JET MOVES OVERHEAD BEFORE WE
START TO MIX THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN. THE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND
SEA FOG COULD IMPACT COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING, GUSTS 25 KTS AND 6 FOOTERS ~20 NM OUT. A SECOND
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONGER NW WINDS GUSTING ~30
KTS. A FEW, INFREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SAT
EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND A BIT MORE VARIABLE INTO MONDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH MIGRATES NEARLY OVERHEAD. BY LATE MON INTO TUES,
THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH AND EAST LEAVING A MORE SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS UP TO 30 KTS SAT EVE WILL DROP TO 5 TO
10 KT BY SUN AFTN AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUES. SEAS RESPOND AS
WELL, WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT SAT NIGHT DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT ON SUN LEAVING A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL SUN INTO
MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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