010
FXUS62 KILM 070035
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE UPDATE FOR RAISING A GALE WARNING FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
ONLY, SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC, IN EFFECT FROM
4AM SAT THRU MIDNIGHT . LATEST HIGH RES MODELS AND 18Z GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE WHAT WAS BORDERLINE GALE SUSTAINED THRESHOLDS
SHOULD ATLEAST OBSERVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KT. AFTER
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS AT 2K FT WILL RUN 40 TO 50+ KT
AND SHOULD OBSERVE MIXING AS GUSTS TO THE OCEAN SFC EVEN WITH
SSTS IN THE 40S NEARSHORE TO AROUND 50 20 NM OUT GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR. PLENTY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTION, ESPECIALLY
WHEN THAT AIR REACHES THE "WARM" GULF STREAM WATERS OFFSHORE.
WILL RE-RUN NWPS TO INCORPORATE SEAS WITH THE UPDATED FCST WIND
FIELD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PARTICULARLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS
10-15 DEGREES IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PARTICULARLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND
CHILLS 10-15 DEGREES IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY, COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST
AREAS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST PUSH OF COLD AIR
WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AS A JET ALOFT WITH ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST, WITH US ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF IT. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (~30-35 KTS)
SHOULD MIX DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME MANIFESTING AS WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH. THIS PAIRED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S
WILL MAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING (A -10 DEG DIFFERENCE FROM THE FORECAST HIGHS). THIS
COLD WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE AN OVERNIGHT BREEZE
WILL LINGER, DROPPING WIND CHILLS BELOW 15 DEGREES TO WHERE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO SATURDAY BUT MUCH LESS IN THE WAY
OF WINDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
LOWS COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED, AND THIS
WILL BE THE END OF THE COLD WEATHER AS WE WARM UP INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE PERIOD. ARCTIC
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE BOUTS OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU DECKS
AHEAD OF IT THIS EVENING. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE VEERING WINDS
TO THE NW AFTER FROPA, FOLLOWED BY CAA SURGE AND A TIGHTENED SFC
PG YIELDING NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30+ KT AT TIMES DURING DAYLIGHT
SAT. PRIOR TO THE GUSTINESS, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE LLWS
ADVERTISEMENTS WITH SPEEDS AT 40 TO 50+ KT AT 2K FT BEING
PROGGED.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING, WITH PERIODIC SEA FOG
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS MON NIGHT THRU WED.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING, GUSTS 25 KTS AND 6 FOOTERS ~20 NM
OUT. A SECOND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONGER NW
WINDS GUSTING ~30 KTS. A FEW, INFREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SAT
EVENING WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES.
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND A BIT MORE VARIABLE INTO MONDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH MIGRATES NEARLY OVERHEAD. BY LATE MON INTO TUES,
THE HIGH SINKS SOUTH AND EAST LEAVING A MORE SW RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS UP TO 30 KTS SAT EVE WILL DROP TO 5 TO
10 KT BY SUN AFTN AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUES. SEAS RESPOND AS
WELL, WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT SAT NIGHT DROPPING DOWN TO 2
TO 4 FT ON SUN LEAVING A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL SUN INTO
MON.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...LEW
DISCUSSION...LEW
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/RGZ/LEW
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