900
FXUS62 KILM 070641
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
141 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL SE NC ZONES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS MORNING
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THIS MORNING TO BRING A COLD,
BLUSTERY DAY TODAY DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN NC MORESO THAN SC AND MAY LINGER
LONGEST ALONG THE COAST. EVEN AS THE GUSTINESS WANES TONIGHT AS
MIXING BECOMES MORE SHALLOW SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-
WORTHY APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 15F WILL MATERIALIZE
ACROSS NC ZONES. NORTHERNMOST ROW OF SC ZONES A SLIGHTLY TOUGHER
CALL AS AREAL COVERAGE OF SAID APPARENT T'S MAY COME INTO
PLAY...WILL LET THE DAY CREW RE- ASSESS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THE ONLY FM
GROUPS NEEDED IN THE TAFS WILL BE WIND-RELATED AS WE OTHERWISE STAY
VFR. LOW LEVEL JETTING IS ALREADY MANIFESTING OUT OF THE NW AND ILM
WILL BE CARRYING LLWS AT ISSUANCE (KLTX RADAR ALREADY SAMPLING WINDS
NW AT 35KT AT 2KFT) WITH OTHER COASTAL LOCALES FOLLOWING SUIT SOON
THEREAFTER. WITH SUNRISE COMES DEEPER MIXING AND SURFACE WINDS RAMP
UP PRECIPITOUSLY ALLEVIATING WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. SOON AFTER SUNSET
AS MIXING GROWS A BIT MORE SHALLOW THE GUSTINESS SHOULD ABATE
ESPECIALLY AT INLAND LBT AND FLO.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM SHALLOW FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE MON NIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. SEA FOG COULD ALSO
IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...POST-FRONTAL REGIME ABOUT TO SET UP. NW WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY HANDILY NECESSITATING SCA FOR SC WATERS. TOUGHER CALL
OVER NC WATERS. MODELS SHOWING A 925 SWATH OF 35KT WINDS OUT OF THE
NW, WITH HIGHER VALUES NOTED NORTH OF HSE. WITH SSTS ONLY IN THE MID
40S, THE BOTTOM QUARTILE OF TEMPS FOR THE DATE, IT'S HARD TO SAY HOW
MUCH THIS MOMENTUM WILL TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. SINCE THE GALE
WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN HOISTED HOWEVER THERE SEEMED LITTLE VALUE
IN LOWERING IT IN ORDER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BEYOND EARLY SUN, NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER
EXPECTED DESPITE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WED NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MOVES IN OVER
THE CHILLY NEARSHORE WATERS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ250-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB
DISCUSSION...RJB/LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
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