776
FXUS62 KILM 090556
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1256 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MID
WEEK AND LIKELY MORESO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MID
WEEK AND LIKELY MORESO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOLING TREND LATE WEEK. A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN STARTING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HIGH CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM THE RISK
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL SUPPORT INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS
NEARLY OVERHEAD AND WINDS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME VERY
WEAK. WINDS SHOULD GO CALM AFTER SUNSET AND SUPPORT RAPID COOLING
WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR, AND THIS, COMBINED WITH RISING DEW POINTS,
MAY RESULT IN SHALLOW FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
INTERMITTENT SEA FOG COULD ALSO IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT COULD ALSO BRING SOME MAINLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS
FROM RAIN AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY SLACKEN
AND VEER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD. GENERALLY
1-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
WIND WAVES. HOWEVER, IN THE WATERS PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR, AN ENE 1-3 FT SWELL WITH A PERIOD AROUND 12-13 SEC IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM AS WELL.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THRU THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT) TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. ALSO, THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR SEA FOG TUE AFTN/NIGHT
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE FEAR.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...RJB/ABW
DISCUSSION...RJB
AVIATION...ABW/RJB
MARINE...RJB/ABW
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