448
FXUS62 KILM 221821
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
121 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
2)VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHALLENGE
RECORD LOWS AT FLO AND CRE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS,
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH COMBINED
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F WILL BRING WIND CHILLS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S. THIS IS JUST SHY OF COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 15F. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHARPLY COLDER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND ANYONE WHO WILL BE
OUTDOORS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE
WIND AND COLD. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
MID-UPPER 40S WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHALLENGE
RECORD LOWS AT FLO AND CRE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINING OFF THE
EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE EXITING
SNOWBOMB OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL BRING JUST
ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT RADATIONAL COOLING BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY EVEN AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S. THE RECORDS ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION THOUGH ADMITEDLY ILM AND LBT
LOOK QUITE SAFE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS,
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-00Z,
MAINLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH VFR RETURNING SOON AFTER THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHIFTS AWAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET,
BUT BREEZY WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH PEAK GUSTS SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 25 KTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES, STRONG NW FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 23 OR 00Z. A GALE WARNING COMMENCES
AT 21Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF 25-30
KT GUSTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS WILL
RESPOND BY INCREASING TO AROUND 3-6 FT THIS EVENING AND THESE REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE WITH SCA
ONCE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED AS THE WILL STILL BE A HEATLHY GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE POWERFUL NOR'EASTER
LEAVING NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP THE BIGGEST
WAVES OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT WINDS COULD TAKE TIL TUESDAY TO
STOP GUSTING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WIND TURNS TO THE SW TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME
WILL STRENGTHEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED
BY WEDNESDAY-NO GALES THIS TIME THOUGH. THE WIND PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY
ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A LOWERING OF SCA BUT ONE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC 18 SET IN 1901
LUMBERTON NC 18 SET IN 1978
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC 26 LAST SET IN 2009
FLORENCE SC 24 SET IN 1968
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MBB/ABW
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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