975
FXUS62 KILM 222345
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
645 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK AS WE APPROACH 7 PM EST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
2)VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHALLENGE
RECORD LOWS AT FLO AND CRE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECT BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS,
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH COMBINED
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F WILL BRING WIND CHILLS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 10S TO LOW 20S. THIS IS JUST SHY OF COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHICH IS 15F. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHARPLY COLDER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND ANYONE WHO WILL BE
OUTDOORS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THE
WIND AND COLD. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
MID-UPPER 40S WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT COULD CHALLENGE
RECORD LOWS AT FLO AND CRE.
DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE EXITING SNOWBOMB OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS GRADIENT WILL BRING JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY EVEN AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S. THE RECORDS ARE
LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION THOUGH ADMITTEDLY ILM AND
LBT LOOK QUITE SAFE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALL VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS NOW GONE FROM THE
AREA, ALBEIT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY REMAIN FOR SOME
AREAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS FOR
MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KFLO, WHICH IS CATCHING SOME OF THE
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. GUSTS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT BREEZY WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS PICK UP MORE AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS SHOULD ONLY REACH AROUND 25 KTS. GUSTS MAY START TO
CALM RIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES, STRONG NW FLOW WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 23 OR 00Z. A GALE WARNING COMMENCES
AT 21Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF 25-30
KT GUSTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS WILL
RESPOND BY INCREASING TO AROUND 3-6 FT THIS EVENING AND THESE REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS
BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE WITH SCA
ONCE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED AS THE WILL STILL BE A HEALTHY
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE POWERFUL
NOR'EASTER LEAVING NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OFFSHORE FETCH WILL
KEEP THE BIGGEST WAVES OUTSIDE OF THE 20NM ZONES BUT WINDS COULD
TAKE TIL TUESDAY TO STOP GUSTING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WIND TURNS
TO THE SW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS
FLORIDA. THIS RETURN FLOW REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY-NO GALES THIS
TIME THOUGH. THE WIND PULLS BACK SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR A LOWERING OF SCA BUT ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC 18 SET IN 1901
LUMBERTON NC 18 SET IN 1978
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC 26 LAST SET IN 2009
FLORENCE SC 24 SET IN 1968
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...IGB
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/ABW
DISCUSSION...MBB/ABW
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/ABW
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