930
FXUS62 KILM 231820
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD COLD TONIGHT IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEAR RECORD COLD TONIGHT IN SOUTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR WEST IS SINKING SOUTHWARD, ON IT'S
WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY MORNING. IT'S WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT
FROM THE AREA MEANS THAT TONIGHT IS NOT AN IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT AS WE SHOULD HOLD ONTO A FEW KNOTS OF NW WIND.
THE RECORDS BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR CRE AND FLO
REPRESENT THE NBM 25TH AND 10TH PERCENTILES AND THUS SEEM A LONG
SHOT. STUCK CLOSER TO THE 50TH WITH KEEPS THESE RECORDS SAFE.
THE EVE SHIFT WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA HOW MUCH THE WINDS START
TO DECOUPLE AND MAY RE-EVALUATE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALSO FAR
PRECLUDE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WEAK WAA IS SLOW TO KICK IN
TOMORROW SO HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE THEIR WAY TO ABOUT 50, STILL
SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT.
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
LATE THIS WEEK. AS THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT FRONT DIPS
SOUTHWARD, THE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN AND FORCE THE EXISTING
BOUNDARY TO SLOW DOWN. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY (BEST
CHANCE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING) WITH THE
INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE SLOW-MOVING
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE LATE FRIDAY (BEST CHANCE NEAR
THE COAST). ENSEMBLES ALSO HINT AT RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING INTO A
PORTION OF SATURDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED OR
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES AND POSITION OF A
TRAILING TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY NEED ADJUSTING AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. COLD AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS WEEK. WITH RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. ONLY FM LINES NEEDED
WILL BE TO SHOW WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED FORECAST... VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS RETURN DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
THROUGH TUESDAY... STRONG GRADIENT TO CONTINUE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION AND THE
LARGE NOR'EASTER OFF NE COAST. HAVE NOT CHANGED THE EXP TIME OF
SCA TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
LOWERED A BIT EARLY, THE WINDS BEING THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE
HEADLINES AS THE OFFSHORE FETCH MAINTAINS A NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE
GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS COMPRESSED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET, WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MORNING 2/24/2026...
WILMINGTON NC 18 SET IN 1901
LUMBERTON NC 18 SET IN 1978
N. MYRTLE BEACH SC 26 LAST SET IN 2009
FLORENCE SC 24 SET IN 1968
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM
KEY MESSAGES...MBB/21
DISCUSSION...MBB/21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21
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