816
FXUS62 KILM 240629
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
129 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMING TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THURS
INTO FRI.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS BACK
UP WITH 850 TEMPS RISING FROM -8C TUES TO PLUS 8C BY LATE WED.
SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WED.
THIS FRONT WILL GET STRETCHED OUT TO OUR NORTH AS MID TO UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS VERY BROAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THURS A
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EASTWARD BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THURS
NIGHT. LOOKING AT SOUNDING DATA, THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED LIFT INTO THURS NIGHT AND SHOULD SEE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAIN.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST INTO FRI AND
MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PCP
AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HAVE FINALLY COME TO
AN END, AND NW TO W WINDS UP TO ~10 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS PREDOMINANTLY BELOW 10 KT BY THEN.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
RETURN DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING WITH
NW GUSTS STILL CLOSE TO 25 KT. THE CAA WANES TODAY AS WINDS
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE W THEN SW, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY RE- TIGHTENING INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 4-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON WED. THE
PERSISTENT HEIGHTENED SW FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT WED
THROUGH THURS. THE WARMER SW FLOW OVER THE COOLER ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT GUSTS SOMEWHAT, BUT SHOULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WED THROUGH THURS. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND KEEP GRADIENT TIGHTENED INTO THURS
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING FRI AS FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
ALSO PRODUCE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SW TO NE BY LATE FRI. SEAS
SHOULD DROP FROM 4 TO 6 FT DOWN TO 3 TO 4 FT BY SAT MORNING.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/RGZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page