572
FXUS62 KILM 241750
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1250 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR ALL ZONES 4AM-10AM WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
2)MINOR DROUGHT RELEIF LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECT BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT, A
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 15-20MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
OR SO FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S
WILL ENSURE IT DOES NOT FEEL AS CHILLY AS ON MONDAY. REFER TO THE
MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ANTICIPATED
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MINOR DROUGHT RELEIF LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A SHEARED SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EAST CROSSES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT BEING
DRIVEN BY THIS FEATURE, WHICH NOW APPEARS TO CLEAR LANDMASS BY LATER
FRIDAY (SEE BELOW WHERE COASTAL WATERS COULD TAKE LONGER). REGARDING
RAINFALL, THERE IS A GOOD FETCH OFF OF THE GULF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
VERY HIGH, NEAR CERTAIN RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE
SENSE OF EXACT TIMING LIKELY REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CONVERSELY
THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE MID LEVEL
VORT AS WELL AS THERE ONLY BEING WEAK BAROCLINICITY WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ITSELF. AND WHILE QPF CAN BE A LITTLE TRICKY 3-4 DAYS OUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST PLACES SHOULD AVERAGE ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THUNDER COULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT INSTABILITY IS QUITE LACKING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE KEEP SKIES FREE OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY AND INCREASE IN THICKNESS TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TO AVIATION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LLWS JUST BELOW
THE 30KT CRITERIA TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT.
EXTENDED FORECAST...VFR UNTIL THURSDAY, WHEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
RETURN DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST US TONIGHT, WITH WNW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BACKING TO SW
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERMIT 1-3 FT SEAS INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS NEARING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS (WITH SOME 30-34KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE 20NMI BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS BY RISING TO 4-7 FT BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM THE EVENING ONWARD. SEAS
WILL BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WIND WAVES WITH A WEAK 1-2 FT ENE SWELL
EVERY 12 SECONDS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE WAVE SPECTRUM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE PERIOD STARTS WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER LIKELY NEEDED SCA AS THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT. SW WINDS GUSTING TO CRITERIA AND A FEW 6 FT
SEAS WILL BE FOUND OVER MAINLY NORTHERN THREE ZONES. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY THE NEED FOR HEADLINES BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED. THE
BOUNDARY DROPS CLOSER, EASING THE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST, BUT IT'S
TOUGH TO RULE OUT WHETHER A FEW ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT WAVES WILL
PERSIST AS THE WEAK EASTERLY SWELL ENERGY WON'T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.
NOT TO MENTION SOME GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH AND LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING SOUTH GRADUALLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES. BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS THAT
HEADLINES WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED FRIDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT ITS POSSIBILITY IN HWO. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON
THE WELL OFFSHORE BOUNDARY SATURDAY COULD TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WIND WAVES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS WHAT LITTLE SWELL ENERGY WAS
PRESENT DECAYS.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...ABW
KEY MESSAGES...ABW/MBB
DISCUSSION...ABW/MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ABW/MBB
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