115
FXUS62 KILM 250618
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
118 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRUNG OUT ACROSS NC/VA BORDER THURS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP BEST LIFT AND SUPPORT TO
OUR NORTH INITIALLY THURS MORNING, BUT AS LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE
EAST, THE FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS EASTWARD AND DIGS DOWN
SLIGHTLY, SHOULD SEE AN ENHANCED AREA OF LIFT RUNNING ACROSS GA
AND SC AND INTO COASTAL NC OVERNIGHT THURS INTO FRI. THIS COULD
BRING SOME DECENT QPF, UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN PLACES. THERE
WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY HEADING INTO THURS NIGHT AND
MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION AT THAT TIME WITH POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER.
THE FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED SOUTH BY LATE FRI, BUT MAY REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME PCP OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT WITH SLOW CLEARING THROUGH SAT FROM NW TO SE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. STRONG SW WINDS WILL GUST 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS STILL AROUND 10 KTS BUT WITH LESS
GUSTINESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FIGHT RESTRICTIONS RETURN INTO THURSDAY DUE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. VFR RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONG SW FLOW AS WE'RE SQUISHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW IN THE NE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS AND SEAS 5-7 FT. LATE TONIGHT
CONDITIONS MAY DROP JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS, BUT THEY WILL BUILD
IN AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD SO THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI REACHING OFF THE COAST BY LATE FRI.
ENHANCED SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURS WILL PUSH SEAS UP
INTO SCA THRESHOLDS AFTER A LULL FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT
TO NOON ON THURS WHEN SEAS SHOULD RETURN INTO SCA THRESHOLDS
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ON FRI WITH DIMINISHING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTN
THROUGH FRI EVENING. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE THURS INTO THURS
NIGHT WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI AFTN AND DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT
FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...RGZ
KEY MESSAGES...RGZ
DISCUSSION...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RGZ/LEW
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